A tale of two cities
Last night Raj Chouhan and his fellow NDPers were out in Vancouver helping Jenn McGinn and Spencer Herbert deliver large wins for their party. Both NDP candidates defeated BC Liberal stars, Margaret MacDiarmid and Art Griffiths. Despite governments having lost every by-election for nearly three decades, the McGinn win by only seven percent was a clear sign that the NDP's message that Gordon Campbell only cares about his fat-cat friends may be reasonating with British Columbians. Campbell could have a problem on his hands next May.
Meanwhile in Burnaby, John Nuraney and Wally Oppal were raising money for the Liberals. On hand were a sizable number of Nuraney supporters, including former North Vancouver politician Don Bell. Today the Liberals head to Whistler to celebrate their government and rally the troops for the election.
Money and pep talks may be what the Campbell team thrives upon but the hard work of the NDP may be enough for Carole James to be our Olympian Premier.
Meanwhile in Burnaby, John Nuraney and Wally Oppal were raising money for the Liberals. On hand were a sizable number of Nuraney supporters, including former North Vancouver politician Don Bell. Today the Liberals head to Whistler to celebrate their government and rally the troops for the election.
Money and pep talks may be what the Campbell team thrives upon but the hard work of the NDP may be enough for Carole James to be our Olympian Premier.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 3:51 PM
19 Comments:
If the BC Liberals would lose their arrogance and sense of self-inmportance, then there would be something.
Not surprised at Nuraney, Oppal and Don Bell. The tie in is that all three of them are federal Liberals.
A rally of the troops? Not likely.
More of a nauseating be-in for Campbell and his blindly loyal supporters.
Look for Campbell to tell the membership what good has been done for the province, and that it will be his government to lead the way during economically difficult times (tell that to anyone in the forest industry).
His party apparatchiks will tell the people to get ready for the most important election campaign in the party's history.
Take the by-elections as a warning.
If the NDP did that well in those two by-elections and if the numbers are not favourable for Campbell after next February's budget, then John Nuraney and Richard Lee, plus Harry whereever he decides what riding he wants (never mind him facing a nomination contest, that won't happen), will face a difficult campaign.
The NDP knows how to campaign, and they are building on their successes both in the federal and civic.
Bet your ass on it.
You're so right...Nuraney, Bloy and Richard Lee's support for the Vanity 3 Voices plays right into Corrigan's hands...it will all come back to bite the three MLAs in the butt next May...so long, amigos.
Say hello to three NDP MLAs in those riding, including Corrigan's wife.
No sense in crying the eyes out if Bloy or Nuraney get defeated.
Richard, well a bit of sorrow there if that happens.
But don't blame the 3 Voices.
Team Burnaby is a real mess. They are on their third campaign manager
(second in just two weeks the last one lasted just 5 days), which means they are in real trouble.
Yes I got it, NDP is great, I love NDP, and Gordon Campbell is very very evil.
Great, because when they DO lose, it will be great to see their faces.
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I think it no surprise that John Nuraney is toast, no matter how much Gordon Campbell tries to buy the local soccer moms with a new secondary school. Mrs. Corrigan was in the race very very early, and NDP are not the only ones who know that John Nuraney trying to play the Premier's Pet card while staying centrist is going to fail really badly. Can someone give me reasons why NO NDP inner circles dare challenge the two incumbents who are far more philosophically different than their party platform while targeting a flip-flopper?
I for one, will disagree with the above three NDP posters. John Nuraney will fall, that is without question, because if he cant, Mayor Corrigan should really think about retiring. But Richard Lee and Harry Bloy will be a lot safer than people believe.
Richard Lee's re-election campaign is all but guaranteed. And the only chance for Bart to get more votes than Harry Bloy is when Harry decides to move to Coquitlam.
Funny however, I thought NDP supporters will be a lot smarter. They actually believe BCLIB's candidates in Vancouver are no different than the two save incumbents we have in Burnaby. If that is the kind of people NDP use to campaign, I say Richard and Harry have a lot less to worry about.
As for John Nuraney, his days were numbered the day his master pins carbon tax on the province.
Can someone give me reasons why NO NDP inner circles dare challenge the two incumbents who are far more philosophically different than their party platform while targeting a flip-flopper?
Give it time, they will, plus Harry Bloy too.
I for one, will disagree with the above three NDP posters.
Who says they are NDP?
John Nuraney will fall, that is without question, because if he cant, Mayor Corrigan should really think about retiring. But Richard Lee and Harry Bloy will be a lot safer than people believe.
No they won't. They didn't win their ridings by huge amounts, particularly Richard.
Richard Lee's re-election campaign is all but guaranteed.
No campaign is guaranted a win.
And the only chance for Bart to get more votes than Harry Bloy is when Harry decides to move to Coquitlam.
Harry already lives in Coquitlam. He does not live in Burnaby.
and as for Bart, who says it will be him that faces Harry in the next election?
Funny however, I thought NDP supporters will be a lot smarter. They actually believe BCLIB's candidates in Vancouver are no different than the two save incumbents we have in Burnaby.
They didn't say that.
If that is the kind of people NDP use to campaign, I say Richard and Harry have a lot less to worry about.
You're thinking the wrong kind of people.
Tip to the supporters of Harry and Richard: Run your campaign as if you're scared in losing.
As for John Nuraney, his days were numbered the day his master pins carbon tax on the province.
And is not Richard and Harry since they also support the carbon tax? None of them have said anything publicly against it, and both voted for it in the Legislature.
Is Harry Bloy a target? It really depends on which perspective you look at it from. If you look at it from the general voters' perspective, Harry Bloy is safe as hack, and if you cant beat him in a low turn out election (Campbell 2005 re-election campaign), you are not going to beat him otherwise. The riding is not NDP bound by nature.
As for giving tips to supporters of Richard Lee's re-election, with him being on the winning side all the time, it will be hard for his people to actually take NDP candidate in his riding seriously.
"And is not Richard and Harry since they also support the carbon tax? None of them have said anything publicly against it, and both voted for it in the Legislature."
I do agree. However, the voters will punish the flip-floppers who are voting without any feat of retaliation from the core voters. Richard Lee and Harry Bloy while forced to accept Gordon Campbell's failed policy, with their deep commitment in the community will be seen as less liable for the entire carbon footprint fiasco that put Stephane Dion to shame. Unlike John Nuraney and Patti Sahota, they are not where they are because of Gordon Campbell.
Good grief what was this guy smokin'?
Harry's not 'forced' to do anything. He can if he so chooses not support the carbon tax. If he does, he's no different than any of the other BC Liberal MLAs in Burnaby.
Harry's riding as of the next election technically does not exist, he'll have to run in a new riding which does not equate his old one 100%.
Harry's 'deep committment' to Burnaby is as about as shallow as the water in a bathtub.
and yes, harry is indeed where he is because of Gordon Campbell. He won in 2001 because of Gordon Campbell, not on his own talents.
He lost support in 2005.
The end results of the elections tell the story.
Richard did not win by a huge margin either.
Harry Bloy and Gordon Campbell, trust me, are not best of friends. Gordon Campbell, other than BBY, RMD & SUR's CBD areas, have never cared much for suburban votes. that is a fact. Harry Bloy was never serving under the patronage of Gordon unlike most/all of the Vancouver proper MLAs, Richmond MLA's and anything further away from city was never NDP's strength.
The battleground ridings in this election, will be the suburban votes. We all know by now that NDP only has to flip 7 ridings to win majority, not counting open seat, and full three of them are located right here. I can already see which ridings NDP are trying to flip, the four BCLIB ridings on Vancouver Island, and three interior ridings where NDP won federal election and I can already see 5 flipping.
Therefore, the re-election of Harry Bloy may decide the outcome of the next election. However, the reasons where those ridings mentioned above are swing ridings is simply because these are ridings with strong dose of non-partisan independents. Thus the lower the turn out, the more favored the NDP candidates. And Richard Lee's popularity in his riding is unmatched by any NDP challenger. Harry Bloy had already gone further than that and has involved himself in both local and federal elections trying to secure a place against NDP. And none of that has anything to do with Gordon Campbell and the only MLA defeated in Burnaby was Patty Sahota whose cabinet appointment seemed like the kiss of death.
But our NDP bloggers actually believe that Harry and Richard are no different than those the two Vancouver proper losing candidates next to the Premier's home riding. Neither have been appointed into the cabinet for one. That is a sign that NDP will probably not flip these two Burnaby ridings.
However, I have to say I can already see NDP trying to flip these two ridings as much as they can, but presided over by Harry and Richard ridings will be the hardest to flip. Firstly, carbon tax is not going to flip these two ridings. The voters in this northern suburban part of the city are more family oriented and less philosophically in line with NDP than in the south.
The NDP bloggers here can disagree and say how evil Gordon Campbell is and everyone related to him should crash. But mark my words, if the three new ridings presided by both Richard and Harry Bloy hold (two BBY & 1 COQ), Gordon Campbell will back as the premier for the third term.
The goat in all this is Gordon Campbell's drug induced Carbon Tax. The only thing crazier than the tax itself is the format that Gordo has laid out for it.
The fact that it goes up again on July 1st and the election is in May has handed the NDP a gift wrapped issue for the NDP to use against the the Liberals.
Gordon Campbell has to get rid of the tax. Even the tree huggers that might support it would by and large never vote for Gordo.
If he does not change things Campbell will be part of the Olympic Game ceremonies from the comfort of the Lazyboy in his Living Room.
The carbon tax was an NDP idea to begin with,
however .... that's ancient history.
Campbell is recalling the legislature later this month, and his minions still have the spring sitting to go through, too.
If the opposition stays on this anti-carbon tax kick, I would not be surprised to see him pull that rug.
And then Carole James will have to come up with some way to pay for all her promises.
- All those in favour of deficits, raise your wallets! (And remortgage your house.)
The carbon tax was implemented by the BC Liberals. Plain and simple.
The NDP may have thought about it, but it's quite another to be dumb enough to go ahead and actually do it.
As for the fall sitting, no sense in trumpeting that one. It was originally in The Gordomatic's plan in 2001 to have fall sittings.
This is just an excuse.
There's not much room to remortgage the house.
Why? Because of Gordon Campbell and his stupid carbon tax!!
I have long held the view that carbon tax will inflict the greatest damages on centrist BCMLA incumbents, which include John Nuraney. However, there is a reason why in 2005 neither Richard Lee and Harry Bloy were re-elected. Certainly, there are reasons to worry since carbon tax can easily flip the winning margin the other way. But the winning margin in 2005 in these ridings have more to do with the populairty of the incumbents than Campbell "popularity".
Current poll may put BCNDP 10% ahead of BCLIB, but the independents will continue to dominate the election result. These independents, many of whom have re-elected Richard Lee and Harry Bloy, are more inclined to voting for the government MLA's who have been acting more as riding representative than Campbell appointee; our CFO's & legal counsel's re-election is far from a sure thing. But in ridings like Langley and places where MLA's who voted for carbon tax will likely not be punished for their faint association to Campbell's failed policy. That is the problem with a democratic system, you really have to "work" for your re-election.
So who will carbon tax hurt, it will hurt the centrist big tent MLA's who won in ridings with strong NDP organization, which include the ridings on Vancouver island and the entire Vancouver proper.
But are the three ridings around Burnaby North dominated NDP by nature? Seemingly so, but not in essence. Bill Siksay won by a skin and votes for Mayor Corrigan's re-election came mostly from the south. The anti-NDP faction in Burnaby is far stronger than in Vancouver Proper or on Vancouver Island. Carole James can play her populist card, or appoint ethnic/gay/female candidates all she wants in these ridings, but with anti-NDP factions ready to come together again, I will predict that NDP is not going to flip these battleground ridings come 2009.
"However, there is a reason why in 2005 neither Richard Lee and Harry Bloy were re-elected. "
That's odd. Both of them were indeed re-elected. if they weren't who are the MLA's for those two ridings??
"I will predict that NDP is not going to flip these battleground ridings come 2009."
They might, if the voters don't buy
Gordon Campbell's carbon tax.
But it is not a sure thing.
The three ridings have been NDP for alot longer than they have been BC Liberal ones.
and why "anti-NDP"?? There's only
one dominant political party not NDP in Burnaby, the BC Liberals.
Your post is a typical one of a person who is far too complacent
and doesn't really see the larger picture.
The NDP does not have a system of appointments within their party. They do have a limitation as to whom can run, but that also means that two women can compete for the same riding nomination.
The BC Liberals have a propensity of protecting their incumbents and there have been a few instances of ridings which don't have incumbent MLA's, giving preference to a preferred candidate.
There is one new riding in Burnaby which does have a sitting MLA (it overlaps two ridings that does).
It will be interesting to see if the BC Liberals allow an unrestricted nomination contest or if they decide to put in a preferred candate.
But when it comes to elections..
Candidates and MLA's should always run scared.
Harry's not 'forced' to do anything. He can if he so chooses not support the carbon tax. If he does, he's no different than any of the other BC Liberal MLAs in Burnaby.
The reason Harry voted for the Carbon Tax is due to the sheeple in government that our current system creates. If Bloy were to have voted against the tax Gordo would have been all over him like a wet broom and he would be blackballed forever.
Incorrect. The NDP supporters continue to group suburban MLA's, the likes of Harry Bloy or Kevin Falcon, together with urban MLA's. But we all know that Harry Bloy and Kevin Falcon with their federal allegiance, (that also includes Richard Lee) that they are opposed to carbon tax by heart. To vote against carbon tax is like to vote against salary raise, only "idiots", symbolically speaking, like Lorne Mayencourt, would dare vote against the premier. But carbon tax is not going to flip ridings since how can Carole James who drives an SUV talk herself out of it when Jack Layton has imprinted NDP support for the same tax in the mind of typical voters.
So is the issue Gordon Campbell? Yes, it is in by-elections, it is in Gordon's home riding, and it certainly will be for those who have been his voting robots. But for those government incumbents who are smart to attach themselves to the federal machines and know where to find the support from, re-election will not be a problem against NDP now in opposition.
Can BCNDP flip these three ridings? Of course they can. But do not expect the next election to be a low turnout election that favors NDP like in 05. It will very much depend on the kind of candidate NDP can introduce to run in these battleground ridings. If it is another partisan likes in the form of BCA insiders, no, they probably will have no luck. But we have to give kudos to Carole James, who is by the most centrist NDP premier almost by default. But I do wonder that with BCA dominating the city's landscape for this long, it will be very difficult for them to accept someone centrist like Gabriel Yiu to run in their place. It will be interesting to see if the local NDP tribe will be willing to push through "independents" who at the end of the day may just push Carole into the premier's seat and that's just about it.
But we all know that Harry Bloy and Kevin Falcon with their federal allegiance, (that also includes Richard Lee) that they are opposed to carbon tax by heart.
Big deal.
Falcon is federal Conservative, Harry is both federal Liberal and federal Conservative (helped both Bill Cunningham and Yonah Martin), and Richard Lee is federal Liberal.
To vote against carbon tax is like to vote against salary raise, only "idiots", symbolically speaking, like Lorne Mayencourt, would dare vote against the premier. But carbon tax is not going to flip ridings since how can Carole James who drives an SUV talk herself out of it when Jack Layton has imprinted NDP support for the same tax in the mind of typical voters.
Well it's only one manisfestation of many that can lead to the defeat of the Liberal government.
If that happens, then what would you do?
"Falcon is federal Conservative, Harry is both federal Liberal and federal Conservative (helped both Bill Cunningham and Yonah Martin), and Richard Lee is federal Liberal."
Used to be. All three have sided with the federal governing party. Again, what Carole James has to do is to flip those seven battleground ridings, but with the incumbents already smart enough to know relying on the premier may easily lead to disaster, it will be very difficult to flip these three ridings. I suspect this is going to be close but the premier will hold these battleground ridings and sail to his third term.
Will be pretty rough waters, not an easy sail.
Burnaby's ridings have been NDP for alot longer than they have been not NDP.
Richard did not win by a huge margin and neither did John Nuraney.
As for Harry, he's going to have to decide to run in either the new Coquitlam riding (near where he lives) or the new riding in Burnaby (which he does not live in, but we would suspect that somehow this goof would magically want to move back to Burnaby).
Used to be. All three have sided with the federal governing party.
I doubt that. Harry was just playing Bill Cunningham like a violin for his own music. He was doing the same thing with Yonah Martin. Does well in the strings section of the orchestra.
Richard is federal Liberal as is John Nurnaney (he is a friend of "Senator" Mobina Jaffer who is the best example as to why the Senate should be abolished).
Again, what Carole James has to do is to flip those seven battleground ridings, but with the incumbents already smart enough to know relying on the premier may easily lead to disaster, it will be very difficult to flip these three ridings. I suspect this is going to be close but the premier will hold these battleground ridings and sail to his third term.
Not guranteed.
As for the sail, it will be back from Swartz Bay to Tsawwasen for at least two of them, with their stuff removed from their little office in the Caucus which now holds the governing NDP MLA's office stuff.
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