Now you see him... now you don't
Stephen Harper of the Greens is mentioned in the headline of the riding profile story in today's Now. However, our friends over at Punditsguide.ca point out he is no longer listed as the Burnaby-Douglas candidate.
Burnaby-Douglas looks a lot less entertaining, but the race will remain a two-way fight between incumbent New Democrat Bill Siksay and Conservative challenger Ronald Leung.
Burnaby-Douglas looks a lot less entertaining, but the race will remain a two-way fight between incumbent New Democrat Bill Siksay and Conservative challenger Ronald Leung.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 7:40 PM
16 Comments:
Why isn't Big Bill C in the mix? Is it because he lost the last two elections and has been branded a can't win candidate.
Another Dion delusional, anyways...
Bill Siksay vs. Dr. Ronald Leung, who is more qualified?
Bill Siksay is the critic for LGBT rights. Hmmm... I wonder how many votes he can get by sticking himself loyally behind those issues. I say very very marginal. If Jack Layton wants to become the opposition, then Bill Siksay has to tell us why the voters in this riding have to choose him over Dr. Leung.
I predict a win for Dr. Leung and if anything this will be nothing less than a blow to BCA campaign.
But this is the way I see how the municipal heavy weights will play in federal politics. If makes all the sense in the world for IV to be campaigning for Dr. Ronald Leung and I hope the two Taiwanese BCA council candidates will decide to back Dr. Leung (and hopefully they will form working majority with the three IV councilors).
Honestly, it is truly time for people in the riding to choose someone who can easily make it to the cabinet based on geography and demographics (Ed/Deb/Andrew will not make it to cabinet simply because there will easily be Ontarian MP that will take their places). I will make the obvious prediction that this will be the only NDP incumbent to be unseated in BC. And I will be the first to thank Bill Siksay for his work in Ottawa, but Dr. Leung is the one that can actually represent this riding.
"Bill Siksay vs. Dr. Ronald Leung, who is more qualified?
Bill Siksay is the critic for LGBT rights. Hmmm... I wonder how many votes he can get by sticking himself loyally behind those issues."
Where have you been? Bill was Svend's assistant for over 15 years working for the people of Burnaby-Douglas. Much of Svend's reputation as a good constituent MP is a result of Bill's work. And that kind of service continued since he become MP.
As for his critic duties, for sure his responsibility has been the LGBT critic, and has done a great job with it and is well known for his work on these issues.
His responsibilities didn't stop there though. He was for a few years the critic for Immigration & Human Rights. Did some great work there too that has been noticed by Burnaby's diverse community.
Most recently he has been the Heritage and Housing critic. Housing is especially an important issue to people in Burnaby.
So when it comes down to it, hands down Siksay is more qualified. Based on the service he has provided, his experiences, and the work that he has done as a critic.
Siskay is also an incumbent, twice
over, so his qualification beyond the petty criticism of him being
an advocate for LBGT and Humans rights is a bit thin. He's done well on those (even though many don't take too much of a liking to either), but more importantly, Siskay has continued to represent the constituents.
Ronald Leung has not catered to the main aspect of Douglas, most likely sticking with his comfort zone within the Chinese Cdn. community.
Siskay was also Svend's assistant, and anyone who has been around politics knows that the cosntituency assistant does the
real work on behalf of the constituents. The politician acts as the link between the constituent and the government, but the constituency assistance is the one that actually gets the file moving.
Siskay learned from the best in the business. People hated Svend's politics, but many (including quite a few Conservatives and Liberals voted for him).
If makes all the sense in the world for IV to be campaigning for Dr. Ronald Leung "
This is quite something considering that you didn't think much of them earlier. It was originally the Indpendent Voices joining team Burnaby, and then it was the BC Liberals getting involved with Team Burnaby only, and not Independent Voices and then
there was something in regards to team Burnaby helping Bill Cunningham
Seems you want these directions to suit your own conclusions.
Unless they see something positive in Ronald Yeung that exceeds what they see in Siskay, don't expect the BCA members in Douglas to vote for Leung.
"Honestly, it is truly time for people in the riding to choose someone who can easily make it to the cabinet based on geography and demographics (Ed/Deb/Andrew will not make it to cabinet simply because there will easily be Ontarian MP that will take their places)."
You're wrong there. It's a balance of available talent, and its never guaranteed that first elected people even defeating a strong incumbent reach cabinet. James Moore did not reach cabinet for example in his first term.
if you figure Leung will make cabinet because of his background then where does that put Yonah Martin (Korean)? She is in the same kind of contest trying to defeat Dawn Black, the NDP MP.
Both Leung and Martin are "star" candidates, but that in itself does not mean they will be taking
a Ministry.
Two way race? I live in Bby Douglas and follow the local news, attend events etc..... Who is Raymond Leung? Team Bby President? Didnt Bill Cunningham come in second last time? I see the 2 Bills (Siksay and Cunningham) everywhere.
Sorry I missed the fist name of the well known Tories candidate. Ronald Leung. I have never heard of this man.
"if you figure Leung will make cabinet because of his background then where does that put Yonah Martin (Korean)? She is in the same kind of contest trying to defeat Dawn Black, the NDP MP."
There are simply too many differences. Dr. Leung is far more influential and has far better credentials against Yonah Martin, who too indeed is a star candidate in her own territory.
But I have to agree, that Bill Siksay did learn from one the of best NDP politicans who know how to organize grassroot base support, defeating an incumbent BCA councilor for the nomination. But there are many reasons that the national media have pinned this as one of the battleground ridings. Changing demographics favoring tories for one. The calibre of Dr. Leung vs. Siksay another. In a riding with BCLIB dominating BCNDP, Bill Siksay was never a strong incumbent to start with, not to mention that lack of impression he has left on the constituents comparing to Peter Julian. We have never heard of this man until the diamond-ring-gate.
It is up to their own discretion who IV and TB want to stick themselves with. TB should feel lucky that since their mayoral candidate in waiting has decided to stay away from federal liberals since he ran for MP with them after dumping NDP. IV, however, are far better versed at tactics against NDP seeing how its leader unseated a powerful NDP councilor for Richard Lee and they simply know where they can get the votes to vote against NDP.
Make no mistake however, that with or without the help of IV, Dr. Leung has the votes to unseat B. Siksay. The key is to cut into the immigrant community that had voted for Bill Siksay in the past. And I also believe it is crucial for Dr. Leung to recruit the three IV council candidates and the two BCA Taiwanese Canadian council candidates who as we all know are at the bottome of the BCA ladder. (BCA council candidates are under no obligation to campaign for federal NDP.)
So in conclusion, after the shift in opinion poll, the key for Dr. Leung's election victory will simply lie in the immigrant community, as we obviously know no matter how some want to deny that. How well he can cut into Svend successor's supportin the community will be the key. Just as other battleground ridings in the province, this is a riding for Dr. Leung to lose, not the incumbent.
I wonder how many idiots in Burnaby Douglas will vote or not vote for the Green candidate because his name is Stephen Harper
"There are simply too many differences. Dr. Leung is far more influential and has far better credentials against Yonah Martin, who too indeed is a star candidate in her own territory. "
Kind of an ambigious statement to make. Martin was first ahead of Leung in terms of getting started in campaigning than Leung has been,
and "influential" is a matter of opinion.
But I have to agree, that Bill Siksay did learn from one the of best NDP politicans who know how to organize grassroot base support, defeating an incumbent BCA councilor for the nomination.
I doubt Siskay personally had anything to do with that, since she admitted she didn't work support for the membership as she should have.
The calibre of Dr. Leung vs. Siksay another. In a riding with BCLIB dominating BCNDP,
I doubt the BC Liberals are 'dominating' the BC NDP, since Richard did not win by a huge amount.
"Bill Siksay was never a strong incumbent to start with, not to mention that lack of impression he has left on the constituents comparing to Peter Julian."
Depends. Julian is a publicity hound, Siskay is not. What counts is the deliverance of services to the constituents.
"We have never heard of this man until the diamond-ring-gate. "
There was no "-gate" since Robinson admitted his transgression and didn't try to get out of it.
It is up to their own discretion who IV and TB want to stick themselves with. TB should feel lucky that since their mayoral candidate in waiting has decided to stay away from federal liberals since he ran for MP with them after dumping NDP.
That was some time ago. It's not a matter of him staying away from the federal Liberals, it was more that they didn't want him (he lost the nomination on the second election in which he decided to go after).
IV, however, are far better versed at tactics against NDP seeing how its leader unseated a powerful NDP councilor for Richard Lee and they simply know where they can get the votes to vote against NDP.
So now it's IV being far better than Team Burnaby now is it? You kept mentioning that everyone who isn't NDP should get into Team Burnaby.
Make no mistake however, that with or without the help of IV, Dr. Leung has the votes to unseat B. Siksay.
Depends. Siskay has alot of support built up plus he can pull in a good share of the left wing federal Liberal vote that would ordinarily go to Cunningham, given that the federal Liberals were stronger than they are now.
The key is to cut into the immigrant community that had voted for Bill Siksay in the past. And I also believe it is crucial for Dr. Leung to recruit the three IV council candidates and the two BCA Taiwanese Canadian council candidates who as we all know are at the bottome of the BCA ladder.
So it's now "recruit the IV candidates". Before it was getting Team Burnaby's support behind Leung.
(BCA council candidates are under no obligation to campaign for federal NDP.)
They aren't, just as the three Independent Voice candidates and those Team Burnaby candidates are under no obligation to campaign for Leung or Cunningham. In fact both the Independents and Team Burnaby candidate should stay clear of the federal election because ultimately they may have to work with whomsever is elected MP, be it Siskay or perhaps someone else.
So in conclusion, after the shift in opinion poll, the key for Dr. Leung's election victory will simply lie in the immigrant community, as we obviously know no matter how some want to deny that. How well he can cut into Svend successor's supportin the community will be the key. Just as other battleground ridings in the province, this is a riding for Dr. Leung to lose, not the incumbent.
"They aren't, just as the three Independent Voice candidates and those Team Burnaby candidates are under no obligation to campaign for Leung or Cunningham. In fact both the Independents and Team Burnaby candidate should stay clear of the federal election because ultimately they may have to work with whomsever is elected MP, be it Siskay or perhaps someone else."
If you believe in that, you should tell Mayor Corrigan to stay put and not do any campaigning. Let us remember that this continues to be a battleground riding and Mayor Corrigan may very well be working with Dr. Leung at the end of the day.
But this is a democracy. If Mayor Corrigan decides to personally endorse Siksay, then the two Taiwanese Canadian candidates hould also be able to choose to endorse the candidates as they see fit. IV, which elected Richard Lee, will work very well with them if all of them get elected to form a majority bloc on the council. Again, BCA councilors are not obligated to endorse federal NDP candidates.
But we shoudl really see how the riding is shaped up to be. Firstly, Bill Siksay's support was always far from 50%, while BCA does barely get over 50%, so many BCA members are not Siksay backers. So where should these 20% support go. One way is to have the two Taiwanese Canadian council candidates shifting to endorse Dr. Leung who is now running as THE anti-NDP candidate in the riding. it is good for TB, and mandatory for IV to come together under Dr. Leung for obvious reasons. Since either party may have to somewhat pay for choosing fading liberals over growing tory base in the upcoming re-election campaign.
Like I said, the true king makers those immigrant voters in the community, (strong majority of residents are indeed immigrants) that used to vote for NDP. If they decided to shift to side with the government in 04 and 06, Paul Martin would have his star candidate elected (but we all know what happened to Mr. Demcoracy). This time will be no different. Dr. Leung is almost as good a candidate as it gets and I can certainly see the possibility of him working together with local politicans such as the two Taiwanese Canadian council candidates from BCA.
"If you believe in that, you should tell Mayor Corrigan to stay put and not do any campaigning."
Got a better idea, you go and tell him. I'll just watch the civic election from the seats in the Lower Reds.
'Let us remember that this continues to be a battleground riding and Mayor Corrigan may very well be working with Dr. Leung at the end of the day.'
But he may not. That's also a possibility. Never count your chickens until they're hatched.
But this is a democracy. If Mayor Corrigan decides to personally endorse Siksay, then the two Taiwanese Canadian candidates hould also be able to choose to endorse the candidates as they see fit. IV, which elected Richard Lee, will work very well with them if all of them get elected to form a majority bloc on the council.
Endorsements don't mean a thing to the ordinary voter particularly in the lower turnout civic election.
Corrigan will endorse Siskay simply because they are both NDP.
Why would the two Taiwanese candidates specifically endorse Leung? They also have the option of endorsing Bill Cunningham or even Siskay himself. it's a matter of who is the better candidate, not where they are originally from.
"Again, BCA councilors are not obligated to endorse federal NDP candidates."
They aren't but who and how they endorse may affect their support levels. The best way is to stay out of it completely.
But we shoudl really see how the riding is shaped up to be. Firstly, Bill Siksay's support was always far from 50%, while BCA does barely get over 50%, so many BCA members are not Siksay backers.
That's 50% in a 35% voter turnout election. It doesn't mean all that much.
So where should these 20% support go. One way is to have the two Taiwanese Canadian council candidates shifting to endorse Dr. Leung who is now running as THE anti-NDP candidate in the riding.
Leung is running as the Conservative candidate, not THE anti-NDP candidate.
it is good for TB, and mandatory for IV to come together under Dr. Leung for obvious reasons. Since either party may have to somewhat pay for choosing fading liberals over growing tory base in the upcoming re-election campaign.
Why would this silly notion be 'mandatory'? What happens in your mind of TB or the Independents decide to stay out of endorsing Leung? or perhaps go with Bill Cunningham instead? There are quite a few federal Liberals within TB.
"Like I said, the true king makers those immigrant voters in the community, (strong majority of residents are indeed immigrants) that used to vote for NDP. If they decided to shift to side with the government in 04 and 06, Paul Martin would have his star candidate elected (but we all know what happened to Mr. Demcoracy).
Mr. Democracy was a joke to begin with. A one time wonder.
This time will be no different. Dr. Leung is almost as good a candidate as it gets and I can certainly see the possibility of him working together with local politicans such as the two Taiwanese Canadian council candidates from BCA.
What about the other candidates who are not Taiwanese?
In fact Raymond is from Hong Kong, not Taiwan, and it really doesn't matter if it is Taiwan, germany, Italy or Scotland or even the United States when it comes to endorsing candidates on the basis of where they are from.
What matter is where they intend to go after they are elected in terms of constituent services.
Make no mistake however, that with or without the help of IV, Dr. Leung has the votes to unseat B. Siksay. The key is to cut into the immigrant community that had voted for Bill Siksay in the past. And I also believe it is crucial for Dr. Leung to recruit the three IV council candidates and the two BCA Taiwanese Canadian council candidates who as we all know are at the bottom of the BCA ladder. (BCA council candidates are under no obligation to campaign for federal NDP.)
I have to agree with th last writer, I don't know why people assume if you are Chinese you vote for a Chinese candidate. I have Chinese friends who only vote NDP, I have Chinese friends who only vote Liberal and I have Chinese friends who only vote Conservative. So whether the candidate is white, black, yellow, blue or plaid who is representing that party they support then that is who they will vote for.
As for the Taiwanese, many do support the NDP and they can never vote Conservative. So even if the Conservative candidate is Chinese, they will not vote for him.
"Make no mistake however, that with or without the help of IV, Dr. Leung has the votes to unseat B. Siksay. "
I doubt that. It depends on how much support the NDP has at the expense of the Liberals and possibily Tories and right now they are growing in support, but it is only 4 days into the election.
Never ever take supporter groups for granted.
"The key is to cut into the immigrant community that had voted for Bill Siksay in the past."
They very well may do so again, unless there is some big reason why they should go for Leung. He isn't going to provide much to the average immigrant voter than Siskay has when you get to the basics.
"And I also believe it is crucial for Dr. Leung to recruit the three IV council candidates and the two BCA Taiwanese Canadian council candidates who as we all know are at the bottom of the BCA ladder.
How do you know they are at the bottom of the ladder, and in what context? Does this mean that all immigrant candidates such as those are at the bottom of the ladder? Does that also put the TB candidates who are Chinese at the bottom of the ladder in your mindset too? If not why would they be at the bottom of the BCA ladder when the Chinese candidates would be let's say "higer up?"
" it's a matter of who is the better candidate, not where they are originally from."
I totally agree with this. I am an East Asian immigrant but I would not vote for Ronald Leung because we share the same ethnic background .
I think Bill Siksay has done a wonderful job in the past years and he is the person who's REALLY BEEN WORKING FOR BURNABY DOUGLAS since he was working for Svend Robinson. Bill's constituency office has helped lots immigrant families in the past few years and has always been supportive to community causes. I'd always vote for whoever I think would make the best MP, regardless of his/her ethnicity, party affiliation, background...etc.
Stephen Harper is not going to run, word around the campfire (uhh... tofu plate...) is that he has moved to Jolly Old England...
"Abandon ship now? At our moment of Victory!?!" -Grand Moff Tarkin.
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