William III
Third time candidate Billy Cunningham is parlaying his $12,500 from the Dion leadership campaign into further fundraising success. Friday of next week, former Ontario MPP, Liberal cult hero, and fellow candidate for MP Gerard Kennedy is in Burnaby to help Cunningham bring in some cash for his battle against Bill Siksay.
Cunningham's event is at Burnaby Village Museum, but there is no word yet on when an election will be held so that Cunningham can attempt to make Siksay's time as MP history.
Cunningham's event is at Burnaby Village Museum, but there is no word yet on when an election will be held so that Cunningham can attempt to make Siksay's time as MP history.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 8:44 PM
34 Comments:
So Billy Boy gets $12,500 from the leadership campaign in salary.
Then Billy Boy says to his Leader
and former employer:
'Thanks for letting me work for you and earn money. I'll pay you back by having a fundraiser and we'll raise more than $12,500!"
Nice situation.
But Billy Boy is running about $1200 a month at least in office lease if he still has that office, and there's at least another three months to go before an election is even thought of happening.
So assuming that he's had that lease going since April, he'll accrue about $7200 in office lease expenses, and that's even before
money is raised for other things.
But wannbe candidate gets paid job for leadership contender. Leadership contender pays wannabe candidate. Wannabe candidate then puts on fundraiser for leader.
Bit of a conflict there.
But no problem there. The only one that will end up being history after the next federal election is Billy Boy.
Look to see Siskay be re-elected.
The NDP hates to lose and the Liberals have a habit of not exactly making a winning finish in Burnaby Douglas.
I wouldn't count him out just yet. He is a strong campaigner. He will no doubt put everything he has into one last try. What is more he knows the Bby issues as well as anyone and has very good contacts in the civic as well as provincial and federal arenas.
If he can raise the money needed for this camapign, he could do it.
Each campaign is dynamic. If it is true that the CPC will have RL as their condidate, they run a serious risk of getting two thousand more ethnic votes(who have never voted before) and losing three thosand other votes (who vote in every election). Much will depend on how the CPC candidate comes across in the campaign. For example, why his fixation with Vancouver NPA politics if he lives in Burnaby? Just what issues in teh broader community does he believe in? Why does he not even vote in civic elections?
No one can tell the dynamic of that shift but it might mean a victory for Bill.
Yes, the NDP fight very hard and "hate to lose". But their vote is maxed out and Bill Cunningham is very very close. It will be interesting to watch.
Above poster is obviously a liberal party operator....
Bill Siksay is very vulnerable since unlike Peter Julian, he is not a lock for ethnic/minority votes, and much of his own success hinges on the support for NDP party as a whole.
One wonders where the ethnic votes will be going to, let us look at what is happening then in Burnaby/New West area for all three major parties. Liberals are likely going to nominate full plate of caucasians in the area, same goes for NDP. What about CPC, Yonah Martin/RL/and possibly Sam R. triple threats. True, immigrants like me used to vote for liberals, but not these days.
Since the establishment in the area continues to be NDP, I would expect a strategic voting scheme going in both Burnaby ridings (liberals are doomed in NW-CQ). Richard Lee and Harry Bloy will not be endorsing Bill Cunningham for obvious reasons. If John Nuraney wants to survive the next election that is happening within 23 months, then he should know any attempt to divide up anti-NDP fraction in his own riding will be political suicide.
It used to be that all the anti-NDP votes have gathered behind liberals in both ridings as they see the party in power most likely going to defeat these union endorsed candidates, but time has changed. Conservatives will this time consolidate the anti-NDP votes from within the business community and ethnic community. My prediction would be that should Dr. RL (that is correct, PhD in chemistry) win the nomination, he will out-fundraise Bill Cunningham and unlike civic elections where people pick names out of thin air and put down votes, people will look past his pro-marriage stance and send him to Ottawa as a minister.
You could be right. I think RL is a decent man. I didn't know about the PHD in chemistry and he was able to raise quite a bit for his NPA camapign in Vancouver. However he is not at all known outside the chinese community and he is not an easy hand-grabber (maybe a plus). Whatever, in a campaign it is necessary to reach out to as many people as possible and he is not a natural at it. This will hurt him.
The local media will also be tough on him and want to know why his focus appears to be on Vancouver rather than Burnaby issues.
My sense is that Bill C will have trouble getting the $ he needs this (third)time around. However, I am not in any Liberal loop so I could be wrong there as well.
As I said, Burnaby Douglas will be interesting.
Peter Julien will not have much trouble in the other Bby riding. I don't follow NW-coq so have very little to add, other than that if Joyce Murray (and Paul F)called it quits out there, it must be bad news for both Libs and Conservatives. As far as one being able to generate "face time", PJ is quite good at it - much better than Bill Siksay and almost as good as Svend.
Riding relocation seems to be some sort of fashion statement for the liberals (already 2 cases of that happening in NW). But I think we can all recognize that wont be much of a factor, especially evident in Vancouver Centre in 06. I expect much of the media attention to be focused on his "religious belief", which will in fact consolidate the religious votes. Dont be shocked when Dr. RL announces his opposion to reopen marriage debate, which is just about to do it for that issue.
It is expected that NDP is going to put Kyoto protocol as their centre piece of campaign. With a PhD in science, as long as RL can take Bill Siksay (whose Immigration/Citizenship portfolio actually wont be much of a factor if RL does become a candidate)to pieces on environmental issues, then he is home free.
The impact of unseating Bill Siksay will be huge, it will bring an end to Pietro Calendino's pipe dream of going to Victoria and effectively guarantee re-election of Harry Bloy by removing the establishment from the area. The anti-NDP faction of the area also only needs to find one more person to burn with foul-mouth Nick Volkow to bring back majority on the city council as a proxy war between both Burnaby MP’s start within months after the federal election. All this only requires the unseating of Bill Siksay.
Peter Julian is likely going to be safe, but depending on what kind of candidate liberals will nominate, given the previous reports, I can certainly see another trend of Indo-Canadian community deciding to back the tories, especially if someone like Lily Harvey who has no profile in the riding gets acclaimed by the liberals. But at the present moment, odds seem to be against liberals and even with a weekly visit to NW from Dion wont help either, and if the odd is bad enough for people to suspect tory majority happening, maybe John Nuraney will lead the assault on the fortress Peter Julian has successfully maintained over the past year. But that is not likely and the tories are likely going to focus themselves on bringing down Bill Siksay, the most vulnerable NDP incumbent in GVRD.
I could be wrong, but Yonah Martin has strong grass support and pitting a teacher against a nurse, how much nicer can the race get, but I’m not convinced of her ability to sway the votes from the liberals, but she does have many friends in COQ incl. the other COQ MP. The only reason I am bring up COQ is to highlight the situation in NW as Dawn Black does have certain influence on Peter Julian’s electability.
"Bill Siksay is very vulnerable since unlike Peter Julian, he is not a lock for ethnic/minority votes, and much of his own success hinges on the support for NDP party as a whole. "
Never liked the focus on ethnic/minority voting since it really doesn't have much weight as to the quality of candidate elected, but rather gets into the anemic let's vote for our own, and that elected candidate ends up being dismal.
"One wonders where the ethnic votes will be going to, let us look at what is happening then in Burnaby/New West area for all three major parties. Liberals are likely going to nominate full plate of caucasians in the area, same goes for NDP. What about CPC, Yonah Martin/RL/and possibly Sam R. triple threats."
Really doesn't matter, but there's a problem in electing or supporting a candidate simply because he or she is "one of us".
Remember, the MP represents all voters, not those who are brown, yellow or white.
"True, immigrants like me used to vote for liberals, but not these days."
The biggest fallicy on that was the Liberals selling the idea that they are the party favoured by immigrants (due to Trudeau's Just Society and Multiculturalism engineering in the 1970's). Because of that, many thought the Liberals should be supported by immigrants because the Liberals came out with the favoured immigration policy (but ignored the huge impacts of the Liberals spend easy policies and Six and Five).
"Since the establishment in the area continues to be NDP, I would expect a strategic voting scheme going in both Burnaby ridings (liberals are doomed in NW-CQ). Richard Lee and Harry Bloy will not be endorsing Bill Cunningham for obvious reasons."
Richard is federal Liberal, Harry is not. Harry supports Yonah, but that's more to do with his trying to consolidate his influence as he has tried to do with disasterous results in Burnaby civic politics.
"If John Nuraney wants to survive the next election that is happening within 23 months, then he should know any attempt to divide up anti-NDP fraction in his own riding will be political suicide. "
John is federal Liberal, a friend of Mobina Jaffer and has little influence in the larger sphere of anti-NDP fractions. John's riding
as a political movement has very little substance to it.
"It used to be that all the anti-NDP votes have gathered behind liberals in both ridings as they see the party in power most likely going to defeat these union endorsed candidates, but time has changed."
Somewhat true, but the Liberals had better quality candidates back
then in the name of Celso, Terry Julian and a few others.
"Conservatives will this time consolidate the anti-NDP votes from within the business community and ethnic community."
Possibly. If they get their act together.
"My prediction would be that should Dr. RL (that is correct, PhD in chemistry) win the nomination, he will out-fundraise Bill Cunningham and unlike civic elections where people pick names out of thin air and put down votes, people will look past his pro-marriage stance and send him to Ottawa as a minister. "
Ministers are not elected, they are appointed by the Prime Minister. As for the marriage stance, it's a dead issue and has been for months. the Conservative government will not be revisiting the issue as there are more important economic based issues to take care of and quite honestly, the debating marriage issue isn't worth any time in the House.
"Richard is federal Liberal, Harry is not. Harry supports Yonah, but that's more to do with his trying to consolidate his influence as he has tried to do with disasterous results in Burnaby civic politics."
Firstly on the possibility of jumping boat, there are already a number Vancouver MLA's (sitting or former) that had been recruited by tories. There has been enough precedents from prominent former liberals like David Emerson to prove my point.
Harry is a tory and that's a given. I think it's well understood that backing the tory candidate is the only way to take down Dawn Black in that riding, but it's not easy, but opposing liberals in B-D is not something that Harry Bloy will attempt to do. Given the votes that tories receive in both of the previous elections, Harry Bloy wont be actively campaigning for liberals this time.
As for Richard Lee, backing Bill Cunningham, with the knowledge that Bill Siksay is likely going to ride over his candidacy again, I also see him being neutral in the federal election. Certainly, Richard would rather see someone who can engineer the votes for him in the next provincial election win, but the odds are against liberals these days, and banking on 2-time loser against BS is certainly not a good idea. And shall he decide to back Bill Cunningham, I would say he will have a hard time consolidating the votes against another challenge from Piedro.
As for John Nuraney, yes, he is a federal liberal, but his endorsement really depends on the quality of the LPC candidate, given his weakness in motivating the votes against the other two NDP MLA's in the same federal riding, his endorsement does not really matter much. We shall see what kind of role he will play though in the nomination phase.
However, at the present time, I see all of these BCL MLA's should involve themselves more with TEAM Burnaby especially after t he scare that they had in 2005, the up-coming council election may soon determine their fate in the city. Backing Bill Cunningham may create many complications that they dont need.
"I would say he will have a hard time consolidating the votes against another challenge from Piedro."
Check your spelling............ that said I really dont know about Pietro running again in BN. He doesnt have the base anymore there.
"Firstly on the possibility of jumping boat, there are already a number Vancouver MLA's (sitting or former) that had been recruited by tories. There has been enough precedents from prominent former liberals like David Emerson to prove my point."
Inconsistent. Emerson crossed the
floor to be on the government side.
His error was doing that way too late and should have done so before the 2005/06 election.
None of the "recruited MLA's" are
on the books as candidates.
Harry is a tory and that's a given. I think it's well understood that backing the tory candidate is the only way to take down Dawn Black in that riding, but it's not easy, but opposing liberals in B-D is not something that Harry Bloy will attempt to do.
Mentioned Harry is only backing the tory candidate to continue his power and influence in the Coquitlam area. The Tory candidate will have a difficult time against Dawn Black, since there are not enough new Korean voters to override Black's majority. Kwangul Peck tried the same thing when he ran, without success (but that wasn't against Dawn Black).
"Given the votes that tories receive in both of the previous elections, Harry Bloy wont be actively campaigning for liberals this time."
He simply would not be allowed to by Gordon Campbell. The MLA's will be under direct orders not to get involved in the federal campaign.
"As for Richard Lee, backing Bill Cunningham, with the knowledge that Bill Siksay is likely going to ride over his candidacy again, I also see him being neutral in the federal election. "
Again it's a situation of Richard not being allowed to campaign or support anyone in the federal election. Richard is very vulnerable and his best move is to simply stay out of the federal election. Richard cannot afford to
piss off any Conservatives who are
offended by Richard backing Cunningham, since Richard does rely on Conservatives for a good share of his support base.
"Certainly, Richard would rather see someone who can engineer the votes for him in the next provincial election win, but the odds are against liberals these days, and banking on 2-time loser against BS is certainly not a good idea. And shall he decide to back Bill Cunningham, I would say he will have a hard time consolidating the votes against another challenge from Piedro."
See above. But again it's a matter of Richard not being allowed to
support the federal candidates.
As for John Nuraney, yes, he is a federal liberal, but his endorsement really depends on the quality of the LPC candidate, given his weakness in motivating the votes against the other two NDP MLA's in the same federal riding, his endorsement does not really matter much. We shall see what kind of role he will play though in the nomination phase."
John should play no part of the nomination phase since he too is vulnerable and would like the others be prohibited by Campbell from getting involved in the federal election.
"However, at the present time, I see all of these BCL MLA's should involve themselves more with TEAM Burnaby especially after t he scare that they had in 2005, the up-coming council election may soon determine their fate in the city. "
That so-called scare should never have happened in the first place. It was the product of poor campaigning by people who should have known better and it would not provide much value in the MLA's endorsing TEAM Burnaby, since they have to live with the outcome. If the BCA wins once again, the MLA's will have to live with that. Best position for them is to stay out, and to have TEAM Burnaby get much better campaign management than they had in 2005 and 2002.
"Backing Bill Cunningham may create many complications that they dont need."
No kidding.
"BCL MLA's shound involve themselves more with TEAM Burnaby."
This website seems to have a particular dislike of for the TEAM Burnaby campaign managers. They have been trashed regularly for two years now. Maybe they made mistakes - maybe not, but the whole TEAM Burnaby slate came very close to majority on both Council and School Board.
Leaving this issue aside, let's look at why the BCL MLA's will want to be close to TEAM Burnaby next time. TEAM will spend $150,000 plus on a campaign which will take place six months before the next Provincial election. They (the MLA's)won't care if TEAM wins or not. They will only care about winning themselves. What they will be looking for is up-to-date data. What better place to tune up campaign workers and obtain reliable phone bank data than to be involved or in charge of the TEAM Burnaby campaign?
That's what this is about. TEAM should be renamed Farm TEAM. The data from 16 candidates doorknocking and a $150,000 Phone Bank will help considerably in May 09.
"eck your spelling............ that said I really dont know about Pietro running again in BN. He doesnt have the base anymore there."
Thanks for the heads up. Had Pietro lost his city council bid in 05 following his nomination bid against Bill Siksay, I would agree with you that his base had been decimated. But now that he has been taken under Derek Corrigan's wing which is about to launch another mayoral bid within a year, I do not he will have any difficulty winning another nomination in that riding shall he decide to yield his BCA nomination, though the new Bloy riding will be easier to capture. It is obvious that whose seat he really is going after though, and it's obvious which MP is the BCA's favourite.
On the issue of Gordon Campbell restricting his caucus members from getting involved in the federal election. As long as he sees anti-NDP consolidating, he will have no problems having its member backing tories or liberals whichever is the establishment anti-NDP faction in the riding, or even in the nomination phase in Yonah's case. From the appearance, Yonah seems to be a token candidate to gather Korean votes, but it has more to do with James Moore getting re-elected in his own riding and the money that may be raised from donors that didnt go with Paul Forseth previously. Given that Burquitlam will be divided into two ridings, Yonah may be the perfect BCL candidate in the east side of the riding in a nomination race months following the next federal election.
True, Gordon Campbell does not want to see anti-NDP votes splitted up, especially in Burnaby where no BCL candidate won more than 2%, unacceptable especially in Burquitlam where NDP was practically giving the riding away. But even if he allows his caucus members to back liberal party machines that tories are digusted with, all BCL Burnaby MLA know best not to meddle with tory support in their own ridings. Richard Lee's discipline probably saved him by 70 votes in 05 when he could have easily backed a star liberal candidate in 2004. But I have gotta say whichever party that unseats Bill Siksay will have a lot of friends in the riding.
"This website seems to have a particular dislike of for the TEAM Burnaby campaign managers. They have been trashed regularly for two years now. Maybe they made mistakes - maybe not, but the whole TEAM Burnaby slate came very close to majority on both Council and School Board."
I cant agree more. Some posters have blamed this civic ellection "disastrous result" on Harry Bloy when the election which happened months after 2005 election where NDP backed by dominant BCA only needed less than 1000 votes to purge BCL out of Burnaby, Lee Rankin was able to unite anti-BCA parties and put up a battle against his nemesis Corrigan, that is an achievement worth mentioning on his resume. There are now more than one BCA incumbents that are vulnerable or interested to join BCNDP nomination battles, I can certainly see the possibility of BCL's hand in organizing an anti-NDP effort to make sure that the current Corrigan clan does not get re-elected. Look for Harry Bloy bringing in Richard Lee's endorsement for Team Burnaby.
"This website seems to have a particular dislike of for the TEAM Burnaby campaign managers. They have been trashed regularly for two years now. Maybe they made mistakes - maybe not, but the whole TEAM Burnaby slate came very close to majority on both Council and School Board."
The fact remains that they did make errors, serious ones and anyone who figures that such incompetence should be ignored (and even rewarded with another paid post) is not looking at the big picture.
The campaign managers kept on and sold the candidates and executive about how good they were, and they would bring a comfortable majority (+ 3 or more T/B Councillors) to Council and they simply failed once again for the second time,
in one instance this is one person's fourth failed attempt.
Two of the T/B Councillors would have won without those campaign managers anyway, so the only credit
that they can take is Garth and Barbara Spitz (but Barb could have won without them anyway).
They also pissed off alot of experienced volunteer people who would have helped out.
Never ever piss off a volunteer. You'll never see them again.
"Leaving this issue aside, let's look at why the BCL MLA's will want to be close to TEAM Burnaby next time. TEAM will spend $150,000 plus on a campaign which will take place six months before the next Provincial election. "
They will? That would be good if they didn't spend alot money on paying friends out. Six months from November takes one back to
June, which means the Nomination Meeting would need to be set in May or April of next year in order to meet the schedule.
It would be interesting to see how that $150,000 would be spent. Much of it would have to go to advertising rather than paying excessive renumeration and expensive phone banks.
"They (the MLA's)won't care if TEAM wins or not. They will only care about winning themselves. What they will be looking for is up-to-date data. What better place to tune up campaign workers and obtain reliable phone bank data than to be involved or in charge of the TEAM Burnaby campaign?"
Theoretically true, but you would not see that since few of the local ridings have built-in expertise worthy of exportation to Team Burnaby's fortunes to the level that would mean anything. Anyone can phone, and much of the phone banks are done by a phone bank company these days anyway.
The civic election is a good practice excercise for the rank and file, but TEAM Burnaby will need to pull up their socks and get smarter in being more accomodating to volunteers rather than focus on the perpetual power plays that go on and being not much more than a money mill for friends of campaign managers.
"That's what this is about. TEAM should be renamed Farm TEAM. The data from 16 candidates doorknocking and a $150,000 Phone Bank will help considerably in May 09. "
I would not spend $150,000 on a phone bank. it's a huge waste of money. The better way prior to the election is get the candidates out there walking the streets to get to know the electorate rather than paying the Director of Telephony.
Phone banks work only during elections, they are minimal use before.
At $150,000 someone is going to be making good money, and for minimal value to the campaign, since that data will age very quickly between
September 2008 and April 2009.
Better to get the candidates out there so that the voters can see 'em.
Which one of the TEAM candidates was on his/her fourth attempt?
"but Barb could have won without them anyway."
I agree. I think both Barb Spitz and Gary Begin will do that next time - assuming they both run.
Gary Begin recently voted for the BCA budget for next year and against his two TEAM Burnaby friends on council.
Barb has now made the rounds as a Director of all four BCL Burnaby ridings so her support is clear. I have met her a number of times and she will make a good member of council if she decides to run again. Both Barb and Gary Begin would be better off without TEAM Burnaby. Both will win as independents and not have to worry about raising money to pay those huge Team Burnaby campaign costs
or dragging along other candidates at election time.
As for Garth Evans, he is very ambitious these days and the civic stuff might be too small potatoes for him by next year. Look for Mr. Evans to try for either Provincial or federal very soon.
"Which one of the TEAM candidates was on his/her fourth attempt?"
The reference was to campaign manager, not candidate.
As to who that is, you'll have do the homework.
Pietros base was the Italian community in Burnaby North. They have been surpassed drastically in the past decade by the Asian community.
"Pietros base was the Italian community in Burnaby North. They have been surpassed drastically in the past decade by the Asian community."
His base was also the NDP community in Burnaby North. The
Italian community was some of his
support base, but did not comprise 100% or 60% of it.
Much of his support base came from
the NDP voters who were not Italian.
That's still intact.
But illustrates the dangers of relying too much on a specific ethnic group for support.
The Asian community is not beholden to any one political party, just as the Caucasians and Indo Cdns. are not beholden to any one party.
Pietro lost in 2001, simply because the NDP lost. It wasn't attributed to his 100% share of the Italian community.
Richard is part of the Asian community, but he is still isn't
out into safe territory yet.
To say that Martin and Leung are safe because they can count on the Asian community to carry them both through the federal election is ridiculous.
Didn't work for Kwangyul Peck.
Didn'twork for Gabriel Yu either.
Certainly didn't work for "Mr. Democracy".
Quite true, that is why Raymond Chan will soon be defeated given his calibre in the government side or the opposition side. Tories already had learned their lessons in Vancouver Kingsway, a riding once had four Chinese candidates running, by nominating a another Chinese candidate against David Emerson, granted with intimate Chinese community connection, and lost by more than a landslide. No ethnic community can be taken for granted.
However, if one thinks that YM and RL are only about locking in the ethnic votes, and strategizing with that premise will soon backfire. Granted RL is the most influential figure in Burnaby Chinese community and YM having the only GVRD tory MP as her friend does give her a lot of leverage as this is not going to be the final stop of her political ambition.
Dr. RL is someone that is able to articulate his opinions across people with intellect and for someone taking on an NDP incumbent who usually has organized support behind them, having the money or people is never enough. Sure, there are a few negatives with RL's candidacy, but he is someone who already worked in media and knows how to reach out and he knows what to say when he gets asked controversial questions unlike the previous tory candidate who tries to avoid hot topics. He could have walked over to the 05 council victory had his own NPA comrade not worked against him and that is well recognized. Putting his ethnic origin aside, Dr. RL is the most qualified tory candidate in history from the riding no matter how one frames it, assuming of course, he decides to run against Bill Siksay. Appeal to ethnic community in the riding never hurts of course.
Pietro Calendino's (my apology) support did come from the small NDP community. He tried to take after the Robinson dynasty and would have "reformed" the NDP community in the riding, but he didnt, Bill Siksay was able to still unite NDP support against the liberal party machine/star candidate who probably could have won otherwise.
Things are however changing, locally, anti-NDP support is united as is provincially. But federally, support has always been splitted between the party that governs and the party that wins the most seats in BC. Now that they are the same, it is apparant where the votes will flow to this time.
Would either BCL MLA back a candidate, secretly or publicly, a candidate that lost twice in a party that really has slim hope of forming the next government, or a real cabinet material cabinet from a party that actually has a chance for forming the majority government. Shall Dr. RL run, he should be able to match Bill Cunningham not only in fundraising, but also in motivating the votes, and given the nature of Bill's candidacy, sway votes to unseat Bill Siksay.
"However, if one thinks that YM and RL are only about locking in the ethnic votes, and strategizing with that premise will soon backfire. Granted RL is the most influential figure in Burnaby Chinese community and YM having the only GVRD tory MP as her friend does give her a lot of leverage as this is not going to be the final stop of her political ambition."
When it comes to Joe and Mary Sixpack choosing which candidate to be the MP, none of the "I know so and so" aspects is really going to matter. She will at some point will have to drive on her own, and
prove herself rather than riding
on the Tory Bus sitting next to
James Moore or Emerson.
Locking in ethnic votes has to be the dumbest thing ever. Anyone who votes simply because the candidate is "one of us" is being irresponsible. It's what the candidate intends to do for the riding overall, rather than the ethnic groups that really matter.
If she was running as a candidate would you vote for Jenny Kwan if you were a Chinese-Cdn in New Westminster-Coquitlam? If you're smart, the answer would be no.
Think beyond the box. The "Ethnic" MP will not be able to do much more than an MP who is not an "Ethnic MP".
Anyone who says differently is fooling themselves and has done any applied thinking.
"Dr. RL is someone that is able to articulate his opinions across people with intellect and for someone taking on an NDP incumbent who usually has organized support behind them, having the money or people is never enough. Sure, there are a few negatives with RL's candidacy, but he is someone who already worked in media and knows how to reach out and he knows what to say when he gets asked controversial questions unlike the previous tory candidate who tries to avoid hot topics."
GD wasn't the best candidate anyway.
"He could have walked over to the 05 council victory had his own NPA comrade not worked against him and that is well recognized. "
Possibily.
"Putting his ethnic origin aside, Dr. RL is the most qualified tory candidate in history from the riding no matter how one frames it, assuming of course, he decides to run against Bill Siksay.
How so? Has he done local community work for everyone? Is he well known that many people know him on the street?
Has he worked outside of the Chinese-Cdn. sphere?
"Appeal to ethnic community in the riding never hurts of course."
Problem is that too many candidates
ride on that and hope it pays dividends. Personally I'm turned off by that.
"Pietro Calendino's (my apology) support did come from the small NDP community. "
The NDP does not have a small community. It's rather large.
"He tried to take after the Robinson dynasty and would have "reformed" the NDP community in the riding, but he didnt, Bill Siksay was able to still unite NDP support against the liberal party machine/star candidate who probably could have won otherwise."
Did Caledino run federally? He's run provincially, and is a perpetual pest on Council.
"Things are however changing, locally, anti-NDP support is united as is provincially. "
There's no split in the anti-NDP
support provincially as it is, since it is all BC Liberal.
"But federally, support has always been splitted between the party that governs and the party that wins the most seats in BC. Now that they are the same, it is apparant where the votes will flow to this time. "
People want to be on the winning side. MP's on the government side
can do lots of things. MPs on the opposition side can only talk.
"Would either BCL MLA back a candidate, secretly or publicly, a candidate that lost twice in a party that really has slim hope of forming the next government, or a real cabinet material cabinet from a party that actually has a chance for forming the majority"
Not going to happen since the Premier gives orders to the MLA's not to get involved in the federal election. Richard Lee would not risk his Parliamentary Secretary's position for that, and MLA's getting involved in the federal election does not mean much anyway.
"Shall Dr. RL run, he should be able to match Bill Cunningham not only in fundraising, but also in motivating the votes, and given the nature of Bill's candidacy, sway votes to unseat Bill Siksay. "
Leung should be able to exceed Bill
Cunningham in fundraising but more importantly in motiviating voters to support him on election day.
Cunningham isn't doing anything new, and his level of support in Bby Douglas has pretty much reached its limits. In other words, barring a huge Liberal landslide, Cunningham has pretty much reached the end of his support base.
"How so? Has he done local community work for everyone? Is he well known that many people know him on the street?"
Name one thing that Bill Cunningham has done for the riding, has he ever "won" a nomination race before and has he always been blessed with one. It does not take a genius to realize that volunteerism in the community really does not mean much against party affliation, otherwise we would have seen a lot more non-partisan MP's like Chuck Cadman in Ottawa instead of super-rich liberals like Joyce Murray running for MP's, what good exactly has she done to the constituents in her riding"S".
"Did Caledino run federally? He's run provincially, and is a perpetual pest on Council."
He ran against Bill Siksay for the nomination and was backed by fellow councillor members. And then he followed up this loss with another one against Richard Lee and all this while being a city councillor. He is still one now of course and cant wait to replace Bill Siksay, he is not getting any younger of course.
"There's no split in the anti-NDP
support provincially as it is, since it is all BC Liberal."
There used to be two anti-NDP local parties before Lee Rankin united both parties. Had T/B won majority on the council, he would've launched a bid against Derek, but he is probably going to let Derek serving out another and probably the final term before running for mayor against likely Dan Johnson.
"Not going to happen since the Premier gives orders to the MLA's not to get involved in the federal election. Richard Lee would not risk his Parliamentary Secretary's position for that, and MLA's getting involved in the federal election does not mean much anyway."
Harry Bloy even chairs a committee, I dont see him losing his membership over his endorsement for Yonah. True, Richard Lee tends to be risk-averse politically, and I would agree that there will be no open endorsement for either candidate. However, I do expect him to vote for DR. RL as will many others against Bill Siksay. If DR. RL can secure even one endorsement from T/B councillors, his task to unseat NDP incumbent will become a lot easier as it will signify consolidation of liberals-tories alliance in the riding against NDP's. If liberals and tories continue to split federally, Lee Rankin will also have to deal as he starts recruiting candidates from both sides to TB soon after.
I gotta give kudos to Bill Cunningham though who ran as the youngest liberal candidate in 2004 and sitll not giving up in 2008 despite the fact that he is about to exhaust all of his political capitals. Another loss will probably have him written off for the next few federal elections. He can however make an excellent mayoral candidate against an elderly incumbent in 2008 for those who want "change" to the city council given that Lee Rankin is probably not risky losing his incumbency on the council. Then everyone who does not like NDP will make one big happy family.....
"How so? Has he done local community work for everyone? Is he well known that many people know him on the street?"
Name one thing that Bill Cunningham has done for the riding, has he ever "won" a nomination race before and has he always been blessed with one.
Cunningham has never had to test
against the membership for a nomination. Even his riding's most
recent "nomination" meeting while
an actual meeting for once, wasn't
equatable to a real nomination environment.
"Did Caledino run federally? He's run provincially, and is a perpetual pest on Council."
He ran against Bill Siksay for the nomination and was backed by fellow councillor members."
That's just an in-party environment. Quite different than being out there in a real election.
"And then he followed up this loss with another one against Richard Lee and all this while being a city councillor. "
That can easily be balanced off by
Calendino being the Bby North MLA
for quite some time previously to
2001. The only reason why he lost
in 2001 is because of the NDP wanted to be out by the voters.
Richard in 2005 did not build up
significant additional support.
"He is still one now of course and cant wait to replace Bill Siksay, he is not getting any younger of course."
I doubt that. Calendino will stay in civic government for some time yet.
"There's no split in the anti-NDP
support provincially as it is, since it is all BC Liberal."
"There used to be two anti-NDP local parties before Lee Rankin united both parties. "
Actually one large one and a smaller one (Team Burnaby Ver. 1.0)
which was mostly a few wags. Rankin
ran as an independent while Team Burnaby Ver. 1.0 existed in the late 1990's. T/B back then was
regarded as a junk party that split the vote in c. 1998
Had T/B won majority on the council, he would've launched a bid against Derek, but he is probably going to let Derek serving out another and probably the final term before running for mayor against likely Dan Johnson. "
Possible. But T/B was doomed to fail right from the start. A massive conflict of personalities and power hungry people.
"Not going to happen since the Premier gives orders to the MLA's not to get involved in the federal election. Richard Lee would not risk his Parliamentary Secretary's position for that, and MLA's getting involved in the federal election does not mean much anyway."
Harry Bloy even chairs a committee, I dont see him losing his membership over his endorsement for Yonah.
Harry does not chair a Parliamentary Committe. He is a Deputy Chair of the Committee of the Whole (Committee stage of the Legislature).Which is two steps down from The Speaker. He chairs Second and Third Reading debates of legislation as it passes through the House. Chairing a Committee means chairing a Parliamentary Committee which is quite different in scope. Harry to his credit is a member of two or three Parliamentary Committees.
"True, Richard Lee tends to be risk-averse politically, and I would agree that there will be no open endorsement for either candidate. However, I do expect him to vote for DR. RL as will many others against Bill Siksay."
How so? Richard is not a Conservative, he is federal Liberal and I would figure he would
vote for Cunningham, but he could consider RL, but it would be foolhardy to insist that Richard would vote for him.
If DR. RL can secure even one endorsement from T/B councillors, his task to unseat NDP incumbent will become a lot easier as it will signify consolidation of liberals-tories alliance in the riding against NDP's.
Won't happen. In fact it is irrevalent since Conservatives and Liberals will never ever share resources at the same time in the same room. To do so would be politicial suicide for each.
Endorsements from T/B is not something that would mean anything to RL's campaign. In fact in most seasoned volunteer minds T/B is not much more than junk right now.
"If liberals and tories continue to split federally, Lee Rankin will also have to deal as he starts recruiting candidates from both sides to TB soon after. "
News for you. Liberals and Tories are split federally. They are two different organizations.
Why have Rankin recruiting and not someone else?
"I gotta give kudos to Bill Cunningham though who ran as the youngest liberal candidate in 2004 and sitll not giving up in 2008 despite the fact that he is about to exhaust all of his political capitals."
The guy is a fool. Being the youngest Liberal candidate doesn't mean anything to Joe and Mary Sixpack.
Another loss will probably have him written off for the next few federal elections. He can however make an excellent mayoral candidate against an elderly incumbent in 2008 for those who want "change" to the city council given that Lee Rankin is probably not risky losing his incumbency on the council.
That is assuming that Billy Boy actually shows some leadership rather than showing political opportunism. If he runs, it will look like he's looking around for a home, and that won't go over well
with alot of people. The BCA will snack on him.
As for Rankin, he won't lose his incumbency as he is on pretty solid ground and has been for many years.
Then everyone who does not like NDP will make one big happy family.
....
That's assuming that Team Burnaby gets smart and dumps the perpetual
power playing people and gets some real campaign talent in there people who want to work for change and not people who want to earn a 6 month paycheque, only to end up with a campaign disaster in the end.
Generally a good discusion on the players in the two Burnaby federal ridings - much less snide or needlessly hurtful than past postings.
Today's Sun talks of falling CPC support here in BC. They are still in the lead but it's pretty much a three way race.
The NDP in Burnaby always seem to win in such circumstances. Good thing the election is not expected before the Fall at the earliest.
"The NDP in Burnaby always seem to win in such circumstances. Good thing the election is not expected before the Fall at the earliest. "
It is always easy to make an argument how party in power always rubs some people in the wrong way or how polls right now mean nothing to the election that no one knows when it will happen. But let's just admit that all the the tory incumbents in BC elected in 2006 will get elected in 2008. We are also likely going to see a tory gain should a key cabinet minister decides to run against a hated Joyce Murray.
But let us focus our discussion on Burnaby ridings. Will BW be a three way contest? it is not even going to be close unless liberals can convince Gary Begin to jump in the race so they can at least lose with some dignity. But Peter Julian is certainly not preparing himself for a three-way battle scenario.
Will BD be a three way contest, Bill Siksay may be vulnerable? Will God decide to bless a puritan Chinese Canadian preacher or will He bless an NDP LGBT critic who is living with a church minister in a sinful manner according to the Bible, if one takes it "literally" of course. That we dont know, what we do know is that Bill Siksay was able to gartner enough votes in the previous two times because he was able to electorates in the riding wrongly voted for liberals to keep NDP out of power in a federal election, and they were wrong. But they are not stupid and same mistake will not be made three times. Expect the anti-NDP votes to consolidate behind the conservatives.
"Expect the anti-NDP votes to consolidate behind the conservatives."
Hmmmmmmm. Maybe - maybe not. But the arguments put fwd here make this post look like one long non sequitur.
I dont know how much simpler I can put this into perspective.
Liberals are having hard time nominating a winnable candidate in both ridings in an election that may wipe out liberals in the province.
In BW a strong NDP incumbent is expected to get re-elected in a riding occupied by strong provincial and municipal NDP presence. anti-NDP votes will move away from liberals but given their weak presence in 2005, NDP will prevail in the riding.
In BD, it is a completely different story, Bill Siksay cannot attack RL on social issues when he clearly lacks conscience. Bill Siksay cannot attack RL on economic or immigration issues as he has not the credentials to do so. The only thing Bill Siksay has is the uninspired "strong" support he hypothetically has, with impatient prospects like Nick V or Piedro C waiting to see him defeated, an united anti-NDP alliance may defeat an NDP incumbent that cant get any more vulnerable in the province. We shall see this soon enough as Billy Cunningham starts losing his warchest and having hard time to refill while his tory candidate starts to show up everywhere.
"An election that might wipe out Liberal s in the Province"?
Now I know you are over the top. Nice talking to you.
"I dont know how much simpler I can put this into perspective. "
Keep trying.
"Liberals are having hard time nominating a winnable candidate in both ridings in an election that may wipe out liberals in the province. "
The Liberals won't be wiped out
in the province. There's a few
seats they can hang on to.
"In BW a strong NDP incumbent is expected to get re-elected in a riding occupied by strong provincial and municipal NDP presence. "
Not so. There's no 'expectation'
based on your hypothesis. The outcome of NDP MP's is simply
excellent organization and campaigning by the local ridings.
The federal, provincial and civic
parts of the NDP are essentially the same people in Burnaby. (Membership in the BC NDP is compulsory for membership in the BCA, and those who participate in
all three levels of elections are essentially for the more seasoned
people, the same persons. The NDP has a great advantage in that regard and they know how to use it.
"anti-NDP votes will move away from liberals but given their weak presence in 2005, NDP will prevail in the riding. "
No kidding.
"In BD, it is a completely different story, Bill Siksay cannot attack RL on social issues when he clearly lacks conscience.
Social issues such as health and welfare can be attacked easily enough, and yes Siskay can attack
the minimal transfer payments to health care in B.C.
"Bill Siksay cannot attack RL on economic or immigration issues as he has not the credentials to do so. "
In terms of attacking government policy and Siskay being a member of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, he most certainly can and given the
right circumstance he will attack the Tories on immigration issues,
but most likely he won't.
"The only thing Bill Siksay has is the uninspired "strong" support he hypothetically has, with impatient prospects like Nick V or Piedro C waiting to see him defeated, an united anti-NDP alliance may defeat an NDP incumbent that cant get any more vulnerable in the province."
You're confusing internal NDP politics with the federal election, the two are not equatable to each other, since the NDP in federal elections tend to work very well. Volkow and Caledino would not want to see Siskay defeated. The opposite will hold true, both will work behind the scenes to ensure Siskay keeps his seat.
"We shall see this soon enough as Billy Cunningham starts losing his warchest and having hard time to refill while his tory candidate starts to show up everywhere. "
Posssible. The product of Billy Boy losing his warchest is simply an error in getting that office way too early. It's at least a $1200 a month draw down on his campaign funds, money that could otherwise sit in a term deposit.
"Expect the anti-NDP votes to consolidate behind the conservatives."
Congeal or coalagulate would be better descriptive words.
We're talking about something horribly sticky icky here.
Eeeewwwww.
"Now I know you are over the top. Nice talking to you."
I am a realist and for the things I have said I meant it.
All freshmen liberals are vulnerable because most of them got elected on the merits that they belonged the party that governed and that will work against them. If they take their seats for granted, they risk losing their seats.
So that leaves us with 5 veteran MP's that will be up for re-election.
Keith Martin (@ less than 35% in 04 and 06) has always been running far ahead of liberals and NDP's untill he turned and not even prominent cabinet assignemnt could stop his decline, Raymond Chan has always been a target. Do you honestly believe that liberals are taking both ridings for granted?
Ujjal Dosanj and Hedy Fry both have negatives against them. Not only do they have no prospects of becoming ministers again, their long and polarizing presence in their ridings will not bode well with voters who are looking for a change. Let us not discount that fact that both are likely going to retire with rumors surrounding Hedy Fry became hard to ignore while one questions if Ujjal Dosanj's heart can take another election loss.
But none of these incumbencies are as exciting to challenge than Don Bell. I am sure many have enjoyed the exchange of conversations in our sister blog over @ NV-politics blogspot website. NV tory candidate will be decided on Sat 06-23-07 and whoever wins the nomination that is even more engaging than what happened in Mr. Grewal's old riding. Don Bell will be the last liberal for tories to defeat in BC and if one thinks that is unthinkable, then on just has to wait to see what happens.
True, wiping out liberals has always been unthinkable, but a majority tory government will also be unthinkable until it happens. Will we see one happening in 2008, no one knows, but the thing we know is that LPC is sinking and those who were considered 100% in the past may soon have only 50% chance of survival.
"I am a realist and for the things I have said I meant it. "
Okay.
"All freshmen liberals are vulnerable because most of them got elected on the merits that they belonged the party that governed and that will work against them."
Same thing happened to the NDP in 1991,
"If they take their seats for granted, they risk losing their seats."
Not limited to Liberals. There's many instances of that happening,
a good local example is John Nuraney. He doesn't take care of the riding. Niether does Nina Grewal.
"So that leaves us with 5 veteran MP's that will be up for re-election. "
Plus perhaps a new one here and there.
"Keith Martin (@ less than 35% in 04 and 06) has always been running far ahead of liberals and NDP's untill he turned and not even prominent cabinet assignemnt could stop his decline, Raymond Chan has always been a target. Do you honestly believe that liberals are taking both ridings for granted?"
Ask them. Raymond Chan has gotten so arrogant he goes beyond the traditional level of arrogance the federal Liberals had for decades.
Keith Martin is an opportunist.
"Ujjal Dosanj and Hedy Fry both have negatives against them. Not only do they have no prospects of becoming ministers again, their long and polarizing presence in their ridings will not bode well with voters who are looking for a change. "
Ujjal could be cabinet material in a Dion Government, Hedy not so much.
"Let us not discount that fact that both are likely going to retire with rumors surrounding Hedy Fry became hard to ignore while one questions if Ujjal Dosanj's heart can take another election loss."
Are you an expert on cardiac disease?
"But none of these incumbencies are as exciting to challenge than Don Bell. I am sure many have enjoyed the exchange of conversations in our sister blog over @ NV-politics blogspot website. NV tory candidate will be decided on Sat 06-23-07 and whoever wins the nomination that is even more engaging than what happened in Mr. Grewal's old riding. Don Bell will be the last liberal for tories to defeat in BC and if one thinks that is unthinkable, then on just has to wait to see what happens."
If the NVC's are smart enough to nominate a middle of the road candidate rather than a Focus on the Family type, they'll have a good shot at getting the riding back once held by Reform.
"True, wiping out liberals has always been unthinkable,"
Not in B.C. or Western Canada.
Quite a few people like politically snacking on federal
Liberals.
but a majority tory government will also be unthinkable until it happens. Will we see one happening in 2008, no one knows, but the thing we know is that LPC is sinking and those who were considered 100% in the past may soon have only 50% chance of survival.
No candidate has ever reached 100%.
Even 57% is very hard to achieve.
The Federal Liberals may end up again where they should be for awhile.
In Opposition.
They've had their 12 year run.
Time for something different.
"The Liberals won't be wiped out
in the province. There's a few
seats they can hang on to."
Contemplating such a possibilty may not seem realistic at this moment, so I will admit that it is premature to make a statement at the present moment.
"Not so. There's no 'expectation'
based on your hypothesis. The outcome of NDP MP's is simply
excellent organization and campaigning by the local ridings.
The federal, provincial and civic
parts of the NDP are essentially the same people in Burnaby. (Membership in the BC NDP is compulsory for membership in the BCA, and those who participate in
all three levels of elections are essentially for the more seasoned
people, the same persons. The NDP has a great advantage in that regard and they know how to use it."
I dont really think that's a myth to anyone anyways. If these BCA can get someone from New Westminster elected to Ottawa, what else cant they do in that riding, (other than electing Gabriel Yiu from Burnaby CBD to Victoria, so close but no cigar).
"Social issues such as health and welfare can be attacked easily enough, and yes Siskay can attack
the minimal transfer payments to health care in B.C. "
Do the NDP's still believe they hold the cards to health care issues? Recent polling shows that when asked how they would feel about being able to buy advanced primary medical care for $2,300 per year with a $1,700 initiation fee, "a plurality of respondents in all income classes thought it would be a good idea. In fact, among those making less than $40,000 a year, the margin was 52% to 41%, bigger than among those making $120,000 a year or more, where it was 50% to 46%. In another poll, people making less than $20,000 a year narrowly favoured private hospitals, 45% to 44%, while those making $90,000 to $99,000 were opposed to them (44% to 50%)." (National Post, 03-08-2007).
But let us leave these policy issues for politicians to debate, Bill Siksay with a degree in theology and living with a reverend of a church really has not the credentials to discuss issues like this and will just reiterate/repeat what Jack Layton says on tv. It may sound cool for the first couple of times, but try listening to it 10 times, or 20 times, or for the rest of the campaign.
"You're confusing internal NDP politics with the federal election, the two are not equatable to each other, since the NDP in federal elections tend to work very well. Volkow and Caledino would not want to see Siskay defeated. The opposite will hold true, both will work behind the scenes to ensure Siskay keeps his seat."
I really have no interest bringing up Bill Cunningham again. Let us however talk about NDP infighting. There is no shame in that as all democratic parties will hae different voices, (unlike the liberals). With Svend Robinson moving back to Burnaby North, Pietro will not be the only candidate running for nomination against Richard Lee. IF Nick and Pietro decide to yield BCNDP provincial nominations in BD ridings to concentrate on getting re-elected against an united T/B, then yes, the will help Bill Siksay getting re-elected, probably whole-heartedly.
But human nature says otherwise. Svend Robinson has already expressed interests to run in a provincial riding that used to belong to Pietro and that has been highly publicized within or outside the party. Any NDP loyalist can pretend to be naive, but NDP is never a big "happy" family and more than one NDP politicans have been recruited. True, it will cost too much politically for Pietro to turn liberal, but it is another matter when he sees Bill Siksay conveniently blocking access to Ottawa, directly or indirectly.
Hedy Fry is going to win Vancouver Centre as long as she runs there. Just ask Bill (I'm not sure where I'm from) Siksay who she beat quite handily when he decided to run against her in 1997
Where have you guys been? Svend has taken a two year position in Paris (dare I say "Gai Paris") with Workers Int'l. His house will soon be on the market.
He won't even be here in 2008.
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