New beginnings
Given it's Easter Monday and Svend Robinson might possibly take a run at Burnaby North in the 2009 election, maybe some other past and president Burnaby politicians should try their hand at another level of government.
In a little over a month's time, Harry Bloy, Richard T. Lee, and John Nuraney hit the six-year as MLA mark. That is when the provincial government pension comes into effect. If there is no federal election do any of them take a run for the Liberals in Burnaby-New Westminster or Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam? These jurisdictions do not look friendly to the Liberals, however being a small fish in a big pond might be the change of scenery desired by a local small fish in a small pond. Instead, do they consider another stab at council or even a run for mayor?
Does Derek Corrigan prepare his run for MLA so that he can be the next NDP leader? If so, is Burnaby-Willingdon the only natural seat with Edmonds already NDP, Svend Robinson in North, and Burquitlam not entirely in Burnaby?
Do council members Gary Begin, Garth Evans, or Lee Rankin consider a run at Burnaby-Edmonds? Does almost council member Barb Spitz?
If Derek Corrigan makes a run for MLA, does Raj Chouhan step in to become the Burnaby Citizens' candidate and possibly the first Indo-Canadian mayor? Does New Westminster resident Peter Julian or Bill Siksay?
Or do none of these things happen and Julian and Siksay continue the struggle to get Bloy, Lee, and Nuraney to work for dredging Burnaby Lake while Evans continues to write letters about every issue in Burnaby instead of confronting the BCA council in person on Monday nights.
Discuss away as there are plenty of eggs to crack, or unfoil.
In a little over a month's time, Harry Bloy, Richard T. Lee, and John Nuraney hit the six-year as MLA mark. That is when the provincial government pension comes into effect. If there is no federal election do any of them take a run for the Liberals in Burnaby-New Westminster or Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam? These jurisdictions do not look friendly to the Liberals, however being a small fish in a big pond might be the change of scenery desired by a local small fish in a small pond. Instead, do they consider another stab at council or even a run for mayor?
Does Derek Corrigan prepare his run for MLA so that he can be the next NDP leader? If so, is Burnaby-Willingdon the only natural seat with Edmonds already NDP, Svend Robinson in North, and Burquitlam not entirely in Burnaby?
Do council members Gary Begin, Garth Evans, or Lee Rankin consider a run at Burnaby-Edmonds? Does almost council member Barb Spitz?
If Derek Corrigan makes a run for MLA, does Raj Chouhan step in to become the Burnaby Citizens' candidate and possibly the first Indo-Canadian mayor? Does New Westminster resident Peter Julian or Bill Siksay?
Or do none of these things happen and Julian and Siksay continue the struggle to get Bloy, Lee, and Nuraney to work for dredging Burnaby Lake while Evans continues to write letters about every issue in Burnaby instead of confronting the BCA council in person on Monday nights.
Discuss away as there are plenty of eggs to crack, or unfoil.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 11:50 AM
20 Comments:
Just an FYI Corrigan and his cronies control the agenda on Monday nights making it hard for Evans to confront them in person on even footing not to mention the fact that there are only about 10 of us who pay attention to those meeting which by my last count isn’t enough to win an election. Council meetings are about generating earned media and Evans is doing that in a better way through his letters since his message isn’t edited.
That’s true Tanenbaum but Evans is all over the place with his letters it like he’s throwing random stuff at a wall to see what sticks. He needs to be more focused in his topics.
Corrigan isn’t an idiot he only want topics discussed at council he thinks he can win so that does limit Evans and TB opportunities. Especially now that Corrigan is gearing up for a run at Carole “Lame Duck” James’ job he doesn’t want to get into a confrontation with someone who has half a brain like Evans who he thinks can hurt him. Corrigan is going to focus on union stuff like the $10 minimum wage to try and nullify Adrian “MTF” Dix and his strong union ties.
“Do council members Gary Begin, Garth Evans, or Lee Rankin consider a run at Burnaby-Edmonds? Does almost council member Barb Spitz?”
No because Gary Begin is plain and simply a nobody politically
no because Garth Evans is smart enough to know a Liberal isn’t going to win in Edmonds
no because Lee Rankin isn’t a Liberal or wanted in the liberal party
finally yes because Barb Spitz is used to loosing and may think that being a sacrificial lamb (and that’s what she’ll be) will help her standing within the party and get her a better support network that may actually get her elected on the civic level.
Begin is not a nobody he has a good profile in Burnaby which is what somebody needs to win in this riding. I’ve talked to Evans a few times and he does seem to be bright but politically he’s not polished I doubt if he know enough to think he can’t win there or not but his biggest problem isn’t that its that he’s a little too honest and blunt he needs better people around him. Spitz, Begin, Evans or who ever run’s in this riding for the libs will not be a sacrificial lamb they won here in 2001 and Chouhan while an ok mla isn’t unbeatable.
If the people who ran the campaigns for Begin, Evans and Spitz do the right thing and stay away, then probably there would be a win.
Begin is hardly a nobody in Burnaby. He's actually quite well known inb Burnaby and has been for the past 25 years.
He's (as well as Spitz) been the recent receipient of bad campaign management unfortunately.
I was never on my high school mathletics team but I can do some basic adding and subtracting.
2001 (on the back of a BCL landslide)
NDP 4,924
BCL 9,607
2005
NDP 10,337
BCL 9,599
The BCL party didn’t win in 2001 because of how many people voted for them they won because the NDP vote stayed home and in 2005 the BCL lost not because 8 people who voted for them in 2001 didn’t in 2005 but because the NDP vote actually came to the polls and that’s why the BCL will loose again in 2009 and why whoever runs here for the BCL will be a sacrificial lamb
Does anybody here really understand politics?
1 - Corrigan knows that the NDP will always triple-cross any usurpers to the leadership throne. As a result, the mayor will not run for BC NDP leader until 2013, unless "something else" happens. (Really bad poll numbers do count as something else.)
2 - None of the Liberal MLAs are interested in running for an MPs seat, and they won't even consider the idea, as long as they continue to be re-elected to Victoria.
Bloy would be the most likely to run federally, but he's a Tory, so scratch his name off the list of potential Dion supporters. Besides, Harry's having too much fun in his capacity as deputy speaker, or whatever title he has that lets him swing the gavel in committee.
3 - Lee and Nuraney both know that the Grits are going to get slapped in the next federal election, so they'll hang onto their provincial seats as long as possible. Neither of them is stupid enough to jump ship at this point. (But they might be convinced to do so if someone offers them enough money.)
4 - And as far as the Liberals never electing anyone in Edmonds - does anyone remember Patty Sahota our illustrious former minister of state for resort development? Neither do I.
5 - As for the next Team Burnaby mayoralty candidate. Lee Rankin has always wanted to be the mayor of Burnaby, and he is just waiting for the proper opportunity. Unfortunately, there's a whole lot of Team backroomers who will refuse to work with him.
My prediction?
Despite the fact that Rankin is a) eminently electable, and b) brings money, he is still hated by much of the centre-right rank and file.
Team and Rankin both know that a nomination battle between the former NDPer and another sitting councillor would rip this coalition apart. Unless the animosities subside, Rankin will have to bide his time again, and run for council, yet again.
Rankin has the best untold story of Burnaby politics. If my calculations are correct, he is now working on Plan C - a 30-year plan to become the mayor of Burnaby. For those with short memory spans, Plan A was a 10-year plan to become the mayor, and Plan B was the 20-year plan. Unless Rankin gets more support from within the centre-right, he will embark on Plan D by the time the Olympics rolls around.
“4 - And as far as the Liberals never electing anyone in Edmonds - does anyone remember Patty Sahota our illustrious former minister of state for resort development? Neither do I.”
Sahota didn’t win this seat in 2001 the NDP lost it and unless the NDP tanks again they going to win this seat in 2009. 2001 was an anomaly political in the province it’s the exception that proves the rule that this seat is owned by the NDP.
“Does anybody here really understand politics?”
No obviously only you do… please impart us with more of your wisdom. If your so smart and know everything about Burnaby politics why do you post Anonymous? What are you hiding? Or are you just scared that someone might be able to criticize your ideas personally and bruise you delicate ego.
"Does anybody here really understand politics? "
Someone obviously doesn't.
"1 - Corrigan knows that the NDP will always triple-cross any usurpers to the leadership throne. As a result, the mayor will not run for BC NDP leader until 2013, unless "something else" happens. (Really bad poll numbers do count as something else.)"
Partially true, but it may also be
true that the NDP's BCA may want
someone else for Mayor.
"2 - None of the Liberal MLAs are interested in running for an MPs seat, and they won't even consider the idea, as long as they continue to be re-elected to Victoria. "
Problem with that is, if the Liberal MLA's run, and are candidates in the federal election
that may have to resign before they can be registered as candidates with Elections Canada.
Might be worth checking.
"Bloy would be the most likely to run federally, but he's a Tory, so scratch his name off the list of potential Dion supporters."
Bloy would be a liability to any
party be it Conservative or Liberal.
"Besides, Harry's having too much fun in his capacity as deputy speaker, or whatever title he has that lets him swing the gavel in committee."
He's not Deputy Speaker. He's Deputy Chair of the Whole, which is
a few steps down from Deputy Speaker. Anyone with a term's worth of experience can be Deputy
Chair. Bloy also sits at the "back of the bus", as he hasn't been
"moved up" in seat placement since he was elected.
"3 - Lee and Nuraney both know that the Grits are going to get slapped in the next federal election, so they'll hang onto their provincial seats as long as possible. "
Nuraney may leave in 2009 and
run another A & W.
"Neither of them is stupid enough to jump ship at this point. (But they might be convinced to do so if someone offers them enough money.)"
Niether of them need the money.
"4 - And as far as the Liberals never electing anyone in Edmonds - does anyone remember Patty Sahota our illustrious former minister of state for resort development? Neither do I."
And don't forget the idiot that
ran Patty Sahota's campaign, the
same idiot than ran Team Burnaby's
campaign.
"5 - As for the next Team Burnaby mayoralty candidate. Lee Rankin has always wanted to be the mayor of Burnaby, and he is just waiting for the proper opportunity."
No kidding.
"Unfortunately, there's a whole lot of Team backroomers who will refuse to work with him. "
There's also a few that will work with him, since they know with Lee
as Mayoralty Candidate, they can
one again cash in on getting paid
insane amounts of money, and perhaps a political goodie after the election when Lee gets the Mayor's chair.
"My prediction?
Despite the fact that Rankin is a) eminently electable, and b) brings money, he is still hated by much of the centre-right rank and file."
More so than the idiots that back
Lee? I doubt that.
"Team and Rankin both know that a nomination battle between the former NDPer and another sitting councillor would rip this coalition apart."
Team was originally put together to help Lee ride in to council.
Lee will run for Mayor next year.
Be there when it happens.
If Bloy or Lee wanted to run as candidates in the next federal election, they would have to resign their seats before they would be eligible to be a registered candidate with the local Returning Officer in a federal election.
(Canada Elections Act, Sec. 65 (c).
If Bloy for example were to resign
and run in 2008, would he or his party pay for the cost of the by-election that would have to occur, since the by-election would have to be called within six months of his leaving.
Seems to be that if Bloy was thinking of running, it would more of him wanting a "soft landing" rather than representing the consitituents in a riding that he doesn't live in.
Same goes for Richard Lee.
Since were talking possible federal candidates does anyone know for sure who in Burnaby politics is a Liberal and who is a Conservative?
"Since were talking possible federal candidates does anyone know for sure who in Burnaby politics is a Liberal and who is a Conservative? "
Yep. I do.
Anyone who isn't an NDPer.
You have to remember the only reason Garth got elected is because most of the morons voting thought they were voting for another guy.
Very true.
Many thought he was related to Doug Evans.
It doesn’t matter way they vote for you just that they do and they did vote for Garth.
If one runs, one will get votes.
Rankin versus Corrigan in 08.
Unfortunately, Lee has not repaired his bridges with the 'progressive left' and will not become the mayor of Burnaby until after Derek leaves for greener pastures. (It's hard to knock Corrigan's success, and the biggest strike against him is his arrogance - not enough to lead to his defeat. Team has to gain ground with the environmental crowd, but ...)
The biggest strike against Rankin?
He carries too much animosity against his former comrades. Heck, I know many NDPers who like Garth Evans more than Rankin.
In fact, dare I say, Team would be well-advised to groom Garth for the mayoral race in 2011.
As it stands now - and things could change if the provincial party of the proletariat has prolonged poor polling - I believe Corrigan will only run for BC NDP leader after Carole James loses another election to Campbell.
"Rankin versus Corrigan in 08."
That is assuming that Rankin makes it through the nomination, but there's probably few that will make sure that will happen. The same few that want to be paid excessively for running Rankin's campaign.
"Unfortunately, Lee has not repaired his bridges with the 'progressive left' and will not become the mayor of Burnaby until after Derek leaves for greener pastures. (It's hard to knock Corrigan's success, and the biggest strike against him is his arrogance - not enough to lead to his defeat."
Doens't nessesarily have to be Corrigan. The BCA could find someone else. If Corrigan leaves, it doesn't mean Rankin has it in the bag.
Lee hasn't repaired a few bridges with the progressive right, either.
Team has to gain ground with the environmental crowd, but ...)
"The biggest strike against Rankin?
He carries too much animosity against his former comrades. Heck, I know many NDPers who like Garth Evans more than Rankin."
More than that. He has some real political headcases supporting him.
"In fact, dare I say, Team would be well-advised to groom Garth for the mayoral race in 2011."
Garth is a one issue act. Prior his running for council, he used to be an orchestra.
As it stands now - and things could change if the provincial party of the proletariat has prolonged poor polling - I believe Corrigan will only run for BC NDP leader after Carole James loses another election to Campbell.
Ain't going to happen. Corrigan will stick around. Besides why would the provincial NDP want an arrogant SOB as leader? Even Fat Dave was alot more fun to live with as NDP leader.
The NDP would be well to find someone who is moderate who can appeal to the majority. James is too wimpy and the NDP certainly does not want anyone from the union leadership. That would turn off the moderate left.
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