Gord is Great 2008
In the wake of the 2008 Budget, Gordon Campbell pays a visit to Burnaby at the B. BOT to shore up support for his budget that will pass anyway. Campbell fans, get your tickets now as the event in John Nuraney's home turf will likely sell out fast.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 8:42 PM
15 Comments:
$45.00 is best saved for a Canucks game. They need the fan support.
The Gordomatic doesn't.
Burnaby Willingdon is not John Nurnaney's "turf".
The riding belongs to the voters,not the MLA.
Harry Bloy must be jealous to see who as many already know is the real Campbell's pet. I would say this is the true bell weather riding in urban Vancouver as a defeat in this riding would be a no vote on the confidence of Campbell administration with which John Nuraney prides himself.
But like Richard Lee, trying to guard himself behind Campbell to defend against NDP used to work when Campbell administration was popular and they might as well be invisible and still won 2001. But when a centrist Carole James is matching Campbell in polls, one wonders how can Richard Lee and John Nuraney possibly believe standing behind Campbell will carry them to another term. I would say take a page from the Clinton campaign and see how she will eventually overcome Obama and learn from it.
"Harry Bloy must be jealous to see who as many already know is the real Campbell's pet."
Very true. Harry is making power play moves to 'get noticed' and it hasn't worked. In fact it very may well be working against him.
John Nuraney is far more friendly and approachable than Harry is, and John has been given more assignments in government than Harry has, so that tells the political watchers quite a bit.
"I would say this is the true bell weather riding in urban Vancouver as a defeat in this riding would be a no vote on the confidence of Campbell administration with which John Nuraney prides himself. "
True. It has been considered a barometric riding in the past. The
riding has been won or lost by narrow margins.
"But like Richard Lee, trying to guard himself behind Campbell to defend against NDP used to work when Campbell administration was popular and they might as well be invisible and still won 2001. But when a centrist Carole James is matching Campbell in polls, one wonders how can Richard Lee and John Nuraney possibly believe standing behind Campbell will carry them to another term."
It's dangerous for an MLA to believe that he or she will be carried to another term by the leader. The MLA has to move his/her feet, and take care of the riding. That's more important.
"I would say take a page from the Clinton campaign and see how she will eventually overcome Obama and learn from it."
There's no real comparison between
Clinton/Obama and what happens here in the rough and tumble world of BC politics.
In fact, I'd say neither of them would last long in the political zoo here. Each would be torn to pieces like a pack of hungry wolves tearing apart a wounded moose.
The budget will pass anyway.
Gordon Campbell won't say anything to the BBOT that hasn't been said in TV news items, he'll mention Richard Lee, John Nuraney, and Harry Bloy as "hard working MLAs who deserve your support".
ALl threee will bob their heads in agreement when Gordon goes through highlights.
The BC Liberal hacks who will be there will be smitten with Campbell.
The business community will listen with respect as Campbell takes in the tone of a CEO of a large corporation.
"Me and the Premier" pictures will be taken for the purpose of putting the framed picture on the wall of the President's office at the company.
Might as well as well save the $45.00 and read about it in the Burnaby Now.
"But when a centrist Carole James is matching Campbell in polls"
Huhhh? Latest Environics has -
Liberal - 48%
NDP - 28%
Green - 21%
With those numbers, the NDP would lose at least another 15 - 20 seats today.
The election isn't today, it's May 2009.
Alot can happen between February 2008 and May 2009.
The NDP could close in, if there's a mix of bad chain of events for the BC Liberals and the NDP decides they have something the voters accept.
Never ever get complacement in politics, unless one apsires to be one of those nauseating political hacks who are blindly loyal to the leader.
Always run scared, as if your ass is the only seat you'll keep...
"Liberal - 48%
NDP - 28%
Green - 21%"
That number is misleading and BCL candidates who believe they can skate to another term with that number will be too naive to start with.
But the poll clearly indicates that people are still associating the NDP with socialism & union activism and if the poll is correct has rejected any NDP's notion as the champion for environmental stewardship.
So one asks what can possibly be the rationale for Greens to back SUV operating Carole James as the leader. But if Carole James does decide to go back to chase out the Greens in 2009, then that will simply spell landslide victory for Gordon Campbell. But will Greens decide to align with BCL which is more open to any party that is not aligned with BCNDP, that continues to be possible. And if TB indeed is the party of choice for GP against BCA, that is an anti-coalition alliance that can easily be mirrored provincially.
Federally, the later the major parties nominate their candidates in fact the less likely there will be an alliance since even parties themselves are having infighting. Thus, the real cooperation will be happening in the north. But a GP candidate this early to oppose Peter Julian has been nominated, that simply shows GP will not even consider letting the safest NDP to just walk over. How that will translate to a local opposition to BCA will be more interesting to observe. I would say GP will probably vote "indepdently" for TB's candidate.
Liberal - 48%
NDP - 28%
Green - 21%"
That number is misleading and BCL candidates who believe they can skate to another term with that number will be too naive to start with. "
If anyone thinks the BCL Candidates will skate to another term irregardless of those poll numbers is stupidly naive.
"But the poll clearly indicates that people are still associating the NDP with socialism & union activism"
It does? Where does the poll say that? No aspect that the people favour the progress the BC Liberal government has been making?
"and if the poll is correct has rejected any NDP's notion as the champion for environmental stewardship. "
Where does the poll say that? The GP poll can also suggest there's rejection of the BC Liberals, otherwise the number would be much
less for the Greens.
"So one asks what can possibly be the rationale for Greens to back SUV operating Carole James as the leader."
Who's asking? and how many Greens drive unenvironmentally sound vehicles such as an old VW bus or a cheap 25 year old Honda Civic?
"But if Carole James does decide to go back to chase out the Greens in 2009, then that will simply spell landslide victory for Gordon Campbell."
Not nessesarily. It also depends on the voters acceptance of the BC Liberal government's policy and direction. Has nothing to do with
Carole James chasing Greens.
"But will Greens decide to align with BCL which is more open to any party that is not aligned with BCNDP,"
It is? where?
"And if TB indeed is the party of choice for GP against BCA, that is an anti-coalition alliance that can easily be mirrored provincially. "
Not nessesarily. Right now, TB isn't much of a choice for anyone irregardless of what provincial or federal party they may support.
"Federally, the later the major parties nominate their candidates in fact the less likely there will be an alliance since even parties themselves are having infighting."
Not a factor. There would not be any alliance between the Conservatives and Liberals as there is between the Liberals and Greens, and any alliance between the Conservatives/Liberals/Greens is pure fantasy.
"Thus, the real cooperation will be happening in the north. But a GP candidate this early to oppose Peter Julian has been nominated, that simply shows GP will not even consider letting the safest NDP to just walk over."
Not really. It just means the Greens have decided to start early.
Remember dufus, the federal Liberals "nominated" Bill Cunningham early last year.
"How that will translate to a local opposition to BCA will be more interesting to observe. I would say GP will probably vote "indepdently" for TB's candidate."
Wrong. There won't be any 'independent' voting for TB candidates. The smart voter will pick and choose which candidate - BCA or TB that he or she figures will best represent Burnaby.
That's irregardless of any federal or provincial party influences.
At this stage, given the mess TB is in and the instablilty of the BCA and its irritating Mayor, that would be the best way for any smart person in Burnaby to vote.
"Not really. It just means the Greens have decided to start early.
Remember dufus, the federal Liberals "nominated" Bill Cunningham early last year."
You are quite right they did indeed even with conservatives like Harry Bloy in the mix. But unlike in the south, north side liberals tend to be less hostile to tories and BCL tend to have an easier time in the north. So consolidation has always been easier while the chaos in the south have given Peter Julian the obvious advantage.
It is hard to see Bill Cunningham actually going for liberals, and with Ken Dryden dropping time from time to time, everything seems to suggest liberals are ready to take the riding. But if you look at it closely, a star candidate in 2004 is having no traction and even if an election gets held tomorrow he will not win. An election held tm will not work in his favor and voters know that. So I disagree with you and I will say that consolidation will happen somewhat behind conservatives pushing it to either first or second place.
"You are quite right they did indeed even with conservatives like Harry Bloy in the mix."
How did Harry figure in Bill Cunningham's 'nomination'? he's supposed to be supporting Yonah Martin or is he pimping both sides of the street?
"But unlike in the south, north side liberals tend to be less hostile to tories and BCL tend to have an easier time in the north."
Possible. But that doesn't matter.
So consolidation has always been easier while the chaos in the south have given Peter Julian the obvious advantage.
Sorry, wouldn't happen. If there is
any so-called 'consolidation', it would never happen either in Bby Douglas or Bby New Westminster, simply because the national headquarters of both parties wouldn't allow it.
"It is hard to see Bill Cunningham actually going for liberals, and with Ken Dryden dropping time from time to time, everything seems to suggest liberals are ready to take the riding."
Billy Boy is a federal Liberal, he spent time political hacking for them in their regional office when they were government.
As for Liberals taking the riding,
isn't going to happen. Especially with Bill Cunningham around. The riding has a two term incumbent and it's very difficult to unseat
incumbents with a comfortable vote majority.
"But if you look at it closely, a star candidate in 2004 is having no traction and even if an election gets held tomorrow he will not win."
No kidding.
"An election held tm will not work in his favor and voters know that."
Any election would not work in his favour.
So I disagree with you and I will say that consolidation will happen somewhat behind conservatives pushing it to either first or second place
Sorry bud, isn't going to happen.
The trick is to win, and each party is constitutionally bound to run a candidate in either riding as part of the total number of federal seats.
and why would the Conservatives cave in to the wishes of the Liberals, and why would the Liberals cave-in to the wishes of the Conservatives?
Isn't going to happen. You'll see one candidate for the Conservatives and Liberals in each riding.
Get used to it.
What Harry Bloy thinks, doesn't matter.
"As for Liberals taking the riding,
isn't going to happen. Especially with Bill Cunningham around. The riding has a two term incumbent and it's very difficult to unseat
incumbents with a comfortable vote majority."
2006 Results:
NDP - 17,323
Lib - 16,079
Con - 13,467
Very slim margin last time. All it takes is a 700 vote transfer from the NDP to the Libs for Siksay to lose the seat.
In BC last time around, the NDP garnered 29% of the federal vote. They have been treading water ever since hovering around 20%, while the Libs seem to have maintained close to their percentage province-wide.
Besides Siksay and Cunningham are both duds.
That 700 vote transfer is very unlikely to happen since Siskay is
an incumbent and the NDP hasn't done anything to upset the voters, federally.
The NDP has been unusally weak, but they will be back to full strength.
Be there when it happens.
While Siksay is an incumbent, he will not receive the incumbancy bounce of a Robinson or a Riis.
Now Siksay was also the lone federal parliamentarian to vote against the Bill C-2 crime bill (221 to 1), and crime is a top of the mind issue for voters. I don't know how that will play out with his constituents.
All it would take is a 1% vote change from the NDP to the Liberals for Siskay to lose his seat.
As for the NDP's federal prospects in BC, one must also take into account the historic linkage between their provincial counterparts.
Typically, the federal NDP polls 12% - 15% less than the provincial NDP.
Case in point, prior to the June, 2004 election, the provincial NDP was at around 43% (28% for the federal NDP).
Again, prior to the January, 2006 election the provincial NDP was at 41% (29% for federal NDP).
Figures are derived from Mustel and the NDP also received that approximate percentage at the ballot box.
For over the past year the trendline has been different with the provincial NDP standing at around 35% (28% according to the latest Environics poll).
All ya have to do is extrapolate from those numbers to see that the federal NDP is treading water in BC.
Whether it's the Mustel poll (21%), Harris Decima (20%) or Ipsos (~15% based upon 3-week average and 400 sample size).
Based upon those historic and past trends, the NDP could see an evaporation of upto 1/3 of its federal vote in the next election.
And Vancouver Island North as well as Burnaby Douglas are likely the NDP's most vulnerable seats.
"While Siksay is an incumbent, he will not receive the incumbancy bounce of a Robinson or a Riis."
He already has. He'll be going for his third term. He was originally elected in 2004.
"Now Siksay was also the lone federal parliamentarian to vote against the Bill C-2 crime bill (221 to 1), and crime is a top of the mind issue for voters. I don't know how that will play out with his constituents."
It might, but not to defeat him.
"All it would take is a 1% vote change from the NDP to the Liberals for Siskay to lose his seat."
Isn't going to happen. and why exclusively to the Liberals? How
about .75 of that 1% to the Conservatives and .25 of that 1% to the Liberals? After all one gets alot more done when you're government, but Siskay is going to win.
"As for the NDP's federal prospects in BC, one must also take into account the historic linkage between their provincial counterparts."
Nothing new there. That's been in existence since the 1970's.
"Typically, the federal NDP polls 12% - 15% less than the provincial NDP."
There's also a difference in voter
turnout and to be specific, there are considerably more voters in a federal riding than a provincial one so the percentages are artifical unless the end result is
made to be the same. Then you can compare.
"Case in point, prior to the June, 2004 election, the provincial NDP was at around 43% (28% for the federal NDP)."
At what time specifically? Not everyone who votes NDP provinically
votes NDP federally. There are some BC Liberal voters who vote NDP federally.
"Again, prior to the January, 2006 election the provincial NDP was at 41% (29% for federal NDP)."
Figures are derived from Mustel and the NDP also received that approximate percentage at the ballot box.
For over the past year the trendline has been different with the provincial NDP standing at around 35% (28% according to the latest Environics poll).
All ya have to do is extrapolate from those numbers to see that the federal NDP is treading water in BC.
All ya have to do is rethink once again and try to level off the difference between the two.
Whether it's the Mustel poll (21%), Harris Decima (20%) or Ipsos (~15% based upon 3-week average and 400 sample size).
Based upon those historic and past trends, the NDP could see an evaporation of upto 1/3 of its federal vote in the next election.
Not nessesarily. It's something to hope for, but wouldn't waste too much time on it.
And Vancouver Island North as well as Burnaby Douglas are likely the NDP's most vulnerable seats.
Vcr. Island South is a bit more vulnerable than the north island, and as for Burnaby Douglas, I wouldn't bet the rent on it.
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