Vert
The Green Party is running Carrie-Ann McLaren in Burnaby-New Westminster.
Despite her military family background she is at home in Elizabeth May's party and has even lived in Ottawa. She does not have any problems with gambling having worked at the local racetrack and is experienced in broadcast communications.
With those credentials McLaren might be more helpful as a communications advisor to the Green leader rather than as one of her candidates. As for Burnaby-New Westminster, MP Peter Julian finally has an opponent.
Despite her military family background she is at home in Elizabeth May's party and has even lived in Ottawa. She does not have any problems with gambling having worked at the local racetrack and is experienced in broadcast communications.
With those credentials McLaren might be more helpful as a communications advisor to the Green leader rather than as one of her candidates. As for Burnaby-New Westminster, MP Peter Julian finally has an opponent.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 7:35 PM
15 Comments:
She's only an opponent on paper.
Julian will snack on her.
The Greens are a paradox. They spout all of this environmentalist
mantra, but guess what you'll find in their campaign offices? Plastic cans for the garbage, styrofoam coffee cups, toxic printer cartidges, metal sign wires, the candidate's car probbably isn't tuned to be as fuel efficient as it can be (even if it is a cheap Honda Civic) furniture that has toxic foam pads for the cushions, and the personnel are most likely wearing bleached cotton underwear and a few will be wearing clothes with a cotton polyester mix, and let's not forget the nvironmentalists when they are out protesting..
Look at their camp. Nylon ripstop tents, poly tarps, and most likely they take 2 ply bleached bathroom tissue with them when it comes to walking out to take a dump in the forest or to take that dump in the nearby river or creek..
If I am not mistaken, Greens are ready to nominate in every riding against NDP incumbents across the nation, but will not do so against the Liberals. Greens are better at undercutting NDP's enviromentalist support than any other party especially now with Liberals backing carbon tax I do not see NDP surpassing the Liberal-Green oppposition in environmental stewardship credentials.
So how will this play out as Greens act as Liberas' forward as both try to remove NDP votes away from them? Liberal/Greens have rejected the notion of aligning with the Liberals and Greens will most likely act as NDP's alter ego by redesigning similar set of NDP policies and put Green's own spin on it thus forcing NDP to move left, making this on the national scale really a battle between Conservatives and Liberals who have been perceived as the true alternative by far. But Conservatives across the world have realized that if they continue to only pander to the core supporters while in power, when they get removed.
LPC's strategy too has been clear from the very beginning that is to oppose conservatives rather than trying to focus on gaining ground on NDP, contrast to the over-reaching campaign that Paul Martin had run appointing union bosses and NDP prominent figures as if LPC can win every single riding which has failed rather badly. So, I would say that NDP this time will have to play hard to defend their incumbents as Dion has every intention to simply move on ridings LPC can gain on CON rather than NDP, and if they see fit will try to weaken NDP in various ridings.
In Burnaby especially, and in Victoria or Vancouver, an alliance to remove powerful NDP incumbents such as Libby Davies or Peter Julian will do more to increase CON's victory prospects and federal liberals/conservatives have been aligned provincially and locally in NDP prominent areas and it is not difficult to see that an alliance against NDP is also very possible in both Burnaby ridings, thus it is very possible CON will decide to nominate "value candidates" and let Liberals play the game of removing NDP incumbents. But with GP introducing their opponent ahead of Liberals, it is likely that such an alliance will only appear in the north. And if Bill Cunningham is deemed as lacking the timber to defeat Bill Siksay, then it is also very possible a strong CON candidate may emerge in the north that in fact has the prospect of banding federals like Richard Lee and Harry Bloy together launch a challenge.
But in the south the fight has always been one sided, and this sort of alliance is more difficult to form. But if a strong prospect like Lee Rankin decides to launch a challenge, I think Peter Julian can still be threatened.
If I am not mistaken, Greens are ready to nominate in every riding against NDP incumbents across the nation, but will not do so against the Liberals.
Doesn't make sense unless one thinks of the 'agreement' made between the Liberals and Greenies.
Greens are better at undercutting NDP's enviromentalist support than any other party especially now with Liberals backing carbon tax I do not see NDP surpassing the Liberal-Green oppposition in environmental stewardship credentials.
Probably.
So how will this play out as Greens act as Liberas' forward as both try to remove NDP votes away from them? Liberal/Greens have rejected the notion of aligning with the Liberals and Greens will most likely act as NDP's alter ego by redesigning similar set of NDP policies and put Green's own spin on it thus forcing NDP to move left, making this on the national scale really a battle between Conservatives and Liberals who have been perceived as the true alternative by far.
Not very likely. What's missing in that postualtion is the acceptance of the incumbent MP in many people's minds.
But Conservatives across the world have realized that if they continue to only pander to the core supporters while in power, when they get removed.
How did the Conservatives get into this equation? and "Conseratives across the world" Does this include the CDU in Germany, and the
Liberals in Australia?
LPC's strategy too has been clear from the very beginning that is to oppose conservatives rather than trying to focus on gaining ground on NDP, contrast to the over-reaching campaign that Paul Martin had run appointing union bosses and NDP prominent figures as if LPC can win every single riding which has failed rather badly.
and no mention of Adscam?
So, I would say that NDP this time will have to play hard to defend their incumbents as Dion has every intention to simply move on ridings LPC can gain on CON rather than NDP, and if they see fit will try to weaken NDP in various ridings.
With Dion around, I doubt the NDP
has much to worry about, especially in their strong ridings like the two here in Burnaby.
In Burnaby especially, and in Victoria or Vancouver, an alliance to remove powerful NDP incumbents such as Libby Davies or Peter Julian will do more to increase CON's victory prospects and federal liberals/conservatives have been aligned provincially and locally in NDP prominent areas and it is not difficult to see that an alliance against NDP is also very possible in both Burnaby ridings, thus it is very possible CON will decide to nominate "value candidates" and let Liberals play the game of removing NDP incumbents.
Someone doesn't know their fundamentals. There is no way that the Conservatives would ever merge into agreements with the Liberals to run a single joint candidate against the NDP. No way.
But with GP introducing their opponent ahead of Liberals, it is likely that such an alliance will only appear in the north. And if Bill Cunningham is deemed as lacking the timber
Bil Cunnigham can't see the forest through the trees. His lacking of timber is good though, He's weaker than pine beetle wood and pine beetle wood is more blue than he is.
to defeat Bill Siksay, then it is also very possible a strong CON candidate may emerge in the north that in fact has the prospect of banding federals like Richard Lee and Harry Bloy together launch a challenge.
That's interesting. We thought Harry was backing Yonah Martin the Conservative. How come he is also backing Bill Cunningham??
Can't do both. Either you're a Conseervative or you ain't.
But in the south the fight has always been one sided, and this sort of alliance is more difficult to form. But if a strong prospect like Lee Rankin decides to launch a challenge, I think Peter Julian can still be threatened.
Rankin has no hope in hell to be the candidate for the Liberals, and the Conservatives wouldn't take him either. He's not Conservative but rather left wing, and he should stay there.
Lee Rankin is well-respected and well-liked from across the political spectrum. He draws support from Conservatives, Liberals and people who recognize his long history of speaking up for the people of Burnaby. Good luck finding a good candidate for the discredited Liberals. Only thrice-warmed Martin leftovers like Cunningham think they can win for the Libs. And no doubt that the Greens can take support from the NDP. The NDP isn't an environmental party -- the Julians and Siskays of the world are just mouth pieces for the Buzz Hargroves and Ken Georgettis of the world. All they care about is backscratching the big trade unions who fund their campaigns. No self-respecting environmentalist wants anything to do with the NDP.
Lee Rankin is well-respected and well-liked from across the political spectrum.
Not 100% he isn't. He's tried for the federal Liberals twice and lost.
He draws support from Conservatives, Liberals and people who recognize his long history of speaking up for the people of Burnaby.
Support is earned, not given away.
If he wants the support of the Liberals and Conservatives, he'll have to earn it.
Good luck finding a good candidate for the discredited Liberals. Only thrice-warmed Martin leftovers like Cunningham think they can win for the Libs.
Hah, good luck on that one. Prior to him, it was Mobina Jaffer, who lost but won a Senate seat, and who is alleged to have billed out for a 32 hour day.
And no doubt that the Greens can take support from the NDP.
They can, if they do it right, but the NDP isn't dumb. They know the Greens are their closest competitor on many environmental issues.
"The NDP isn't an environmental party -- the Julians and Siskays of the world are just mouth pieces for the Buzz Hargroves and Ken Georgettis of the world.
Possible.
All they care about is backscratching the big trade unions who fund their campaigns.
and the Conseratives and Liberals, big business.
No self-respecting environmentalist wants anything to do with the NDP.
No self-respecting environmentalist would wear bleached cotton tighty-whiteys.
A real self respecting environmentalist wouldn't use bleached toilet paper or toxic toner cartidges.
"e Rankin is well-respected and well-liked from across the political spectrum. He draws support from Conservatives, Liberals and people who recognize his long history of speaking up for the people of Burnaby. Good luck finding a good candidate for the discredited Liberals. Only thrice-warmed Martin leftovers like Cunningham think they can win for the Libs. And no doubt that the Greens can take support from the NDP. The NDP isn't an environmental party -- the Julians and Siskays of the world are just mouth pieces for the Buzz Hargroves and Ken Georgettis of the world. All they care about is backscratching the big trade unions who fund their campaigns. No self-respecting environmentalist wants anything to do with the NDP."
You are quite right. Lee Rankin was one of the major reasons that conservatives and liberals are willing to come together to oppose NDP in Burnaby. Shall Greens nominate in Vancouver East & BBY North & South, then no one would know which side can score victory. Simply look to the city next door and you will see Greens are not even considering aligning themselves with VV and are ready to take on VV on their on and shall they decide to nominate a mayoral candidate, that will be a nail on the coffin for VV which was founded surrounding a prominent COPE figure that eventually went liberal.
Burnaby is no different. Greens will simply take votes away from NDP in droves, and by replacing NDP as the pro-environment party, the only ting that will be left to support federal NDP's will be those of the union activists that had stayed loyal to provincial NDP's in 2001. What that means is that NDP's number in Ottawa may very well be reduced as Liberals and Greens align to take votes away from NDP's own supporters who are more keen on environmental issues, defense issues, and other issues that NDP cannot claim credentials on.
I think this May-Dion deal is working rather quite well. Certainly in Western Canada, this sort of friendliness between both parties are less clear as the Greens in the west tend to be more radical as the conservatives and liberals here are more closely related and the real opposition is rather the NDP's. So this does put Greens in a strange position. But I would say that if they do decide to take on NDP's as they did in the provincial election, with a surge in popularity, many of the NDP ridings will be now even harder to defend.
Locally, that will translate to both NDP incumbents trying to convince the voters that they own the Liberals on main issues concerning Canadians which I do not see happening on a national scale. I continue to see that the national election will be mirroring the provincial election where the real opposition will come from NDP as the anti-factions will too consolidate as the trend is suggesting. This is happening at the same time with GP candidate nominating its own independent candidates in the south or even north taking away approx. 5% of the votes NDP achieved last election. If either CON or LPC can agree to nominate a prominent community figure (e.g. Lee Rankin) as a Liberal and let Conservative pick someone that will sway moderates to go for liberals, a win against probably the safest incumbent in BC in the south may very well be possible.
In the north where both sides claiming that they can defeat NDP, it will be harder for the support to consolidate, unlike in Coquitlam where CON clearly has the edge on LPC, thus it is not difficult to understand why Harry Bloy is still deciding which party can best take on Bill Siksay. But with Bill Cunningham being nominated for this long and still lacking the momentum needed to win against any incumbent, it will be up to the government party to nominate a winnable candidate. The often mentioned Ronald Leung, while a "social conservative" has the necessary credentials to outshine both of the other candidates, and even if Greens decide on nominating another candidate, if the tide decides to turn in government candidate's favor, I do not think Greens can stop the moderates deciding to go for the government's candidate. It will be even more interesting if conservatives can nominate someone who is even more prominent than him.javascript:void(0)
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"e Rankin is well-respected and well-liked from across the political spectrum.
Well sort of.
He draws support from Conservatives, Liberals and people who recognize his long history of speaking up for the people of Burnaby.
That's based on his civic record on Burnaby council, not whether the voter is Conservative or Liberal or NDP. That doesn't matter at the civic level when choosing who to vote for.
Good luck finding a good candidate for the discredited Liberals. Only thrice-warmed Martin leftovers like Cunningham think they can win for the Libs. And no doubt that the Greens can take support from the NDP. The NDP isn't an environmental party -- the Julians and Siskays of the world are just mouth pieces for the Buzz Hargroves and Ken Georgettis of the world. All they care about is backscratching the big trade unions who fund their campaigns. No self-respecting environmentalist wants anything to do with the NDP."
You are quite right. Lee Rankin was one of the major reasons that conservatives and liberals are willing to come together to oppose NDP in Burnaby.
Wrong. Lee Rankin has no factor in that and the Conservatives and Liberals are certainly not coming together to defeat the NDP. Each will run their own candidate.
Shall Greens nominate in Vancouver East & BBY North & South, then no one would know which side can score victory.
There is no "Burnaby North" and "South", and the Greens will most likely nominate in the two Burnaby ridings and Vcr. East.
Simply look to the city next door and you will see Greens are not even considering aligning themselves with VV and are ready to take on VV on their on and shall they decide to nominate a mayoral candidate, that will be a nail on the coffin for VV which was founded surrounding a prominent COPE figure that eventually went liberal.
yes and no.
Burnaby is no different. Greens will simply take votes away from NDP in droves, and by replacing NDP as the pro-environment party, the only ting that will be left to support federal NDP's will be those of the union activists that had stayed loyal to provincial NDP's in 2001.
That loyalty to the NDP from labour goes back farther than that.
What that means is that NDP's number in Ottawa may very well be reduced as Liberals and Greens align to take votes away from NDP's own supporters who are more keen on environmental issues, defense issues, and other issues that NDP cannot claim credentials on.
Not nessesarily.
I think this May-Dion deal is working rather quite well.
It's a stupid move by both, and doesn't do either party any good, and erodes the democratic choices of the members to decide who their candidate is going to be.
Certainly in Western Canada, this sort of friendliness between both parties are less clear as the Greens in the west tend to be more radical as the conservatives and liberals here are more closely related and the real opposition is rather the NDP's.
Partially true.
So this does put Greens in a strange position. But I would say that if they do decide to take on NDP's as they did in the provincial election, with a surge in popularity, many of the NDP ridings will be now even harder to defend.
Not nessesarily since the NDP is smart enough to take on the Greens and secure a win.
Locally, that will translate to both NDP incumbents trying to convince the voters that they own the Liberals on main issues concerning Canadians which I do not see happening on a national scale.
Well on some issues, they do. others they do not.
I continue to see that the national election will be mirroring the provincial election where the real opposition will come from NDP as the anti-factions will too consolidate as the trend is suggesting.
Forget that. Both the Conservatives and Liberals will be running seperate campaigns.
This is happening at the same time with GP candidate nominating its own independent candidates in the south or even north taking away approx. 5% of the votes NDP achieved last election. If either CON or LPC can agree to nominate a prominent community figure (e.g. Lee Rankin) as a Liberal and let Conservative pick someone that will sway moderates to go for liberals, a win against probably the safest incumbent in BC in the south may very well be possible.
Ain't going to happen. Might has well throw that idea into the can.
In the north where both sides claiming that they can defeat NDP, it will be harder for the support to consolidate, unlike in Coquitlam where CON clearly has the edge on LPC, thus it is not difficult to understand why Harry Bloy is still deciding which party can best take on Bill Siksay.
Harry can decide what he wants, the Liberals and Conservatives would be fools to take his advice.
But with Bill Cunningham being nominated for this long and still lacking the momentum needed to win against any incumbent, it will be up to the government party to nominate a winnable candidate.
The Conservatives will find a winnable candidate. They know what they need to do.
The often mentioned Ronald Leung, while a "social conservative" has the necessary credentials to outshine both of the other candidates, and even if Greens decide on nominating another candidate, if the tide decides to turn in government candidate's favor, I do not think Greens can stop the moderates deciding to go for the government's candidate.
Leung is not the 'government's candidate'. The government doesn't technically exist once the election begins.
It will be even more interesting if conservatives can nominate someone who is even more prominent than him.
They could, but rest assured it won't be Lee Rankin.
Rankin has already run for the federal Liberals and the Conservatives most likely wouldn't take him, because federally, he's
'stained goods'.
"That's based on his civic record on Burnaby council, not whether the voter is Conservative or Liberal or NDP. That doesn't matter at the civic level when choosing who to vote for."
If you think that power struggle in the national and provincial political realms do not trickle down to the civic level, then you are indeed naive.
Do you possibly think that BCA can hold own to power had they not aligned with BCNDP that had governed over the "lost decade" as Campbell would like to call it. Certainly not so. Such thinking is too naive.
So will the federal GP/LPC alliance have its own trickle down effect? Alberta election is coming up soon and we should see pretty soon how that will play out. But in western Canada where conservatives and liberals have bonded under BCNDP reign, it is difficult to see liberals giving up conservatives' support in exchange for greens' support when come 2009 they have to work together again against NDP. Not to mention NDP will also have to face provincial Greens then, and if you think fed GP is the spoiler, just wait till 2009.
If conservatives and liberals are really ready to work together, especially if they see the effort to take down a powerful NDP mayoral figure in Burnaby, then such an operation from the bottom up is very possible. There is nothing stopping Lee Rankin (former NDP member no less) running against Peter Julian who has campaigned against each other for a very long period and there is also nothing stopping federal Liberal from recruiting/appointing Mayor Corrigan, equally qualified as Senator Larry Campbell, to run against Bill Siksay both of which will cause the kind of strategic voting LPC is hoping to achieve and CPC may very well follow. The point however is that the trend of anti-NDP support consolidating has gone on for some time, and with GP gaining historical popularity, alliance at the final frontier may very well create surprises people are not expecting, and God knows how many surprises LPC had on BCNDP already.
Some of the bloggers show they don't know much about Burnaby history. TEAM Burnaby began in 2002 and was and still is a coalition of Liberal, Conservative and Green Party people. Lee Rankin was there at the beginning working with Liberals, Conservatives and Greens in TEAM. Burnaby is lucky to have his leadership at the civic level. It's sad to see the slagging between Conservatives and Liberals on this blogsite since the NDP loves the fact that the Libs and Cons. dislike each other so much, the NDP sails along federally. And its too bad all this animosity spills over to the civic scene where everyone should work together to beat Corrigan and the NDP.
Some of the bloggers show they don't know much about Burnaby history. TEAM Burnaby began in 2002 and was and still is a coalition of Liberal, Conservative and Green Party people.
Actually it was more of Harry Bloy's supporters than anyone else.
Lee Rankin was there at the beginning working with Liberals, Conservatives and Greens in TEAM.
Rankin was not working with the Conservatives in terms of working with the local Conservative ridings, simply because they did not exist then as they do now.
Burnaby is lucky to have his leadership at the civic level.
If there is any leadership to see.
He's being manipulated by Harry Bloy and his friends.
It's sad to see the slagging between Conservatives and Liberals on this blogsite since the NDP loves the fact that the Libs and Cons. dislike each other so much, the NDP sails along federally.
It's not a matter of disliking, there are profound political differences between how Conservatives and Liberals run governments and even their own party affairs.
The NDP is a collective of the same political direction, federally and provincially and at the civic level.
And its too bad all this animosity spills over to the civic scene where everyone should work together to beat Corrigan and the NDP.
They probably would if Harry Bloy and his friends would make the right decision and take off or at least stop adding to Harry's goals of making The Big Play.
Harry has been seen to support the Conservatives (Yonah Martin) and the federal Liberals (Bill Cunningham). He can't do both as either party regards the other as Opposition.
"If you think that power struggle in the national and provincial political realms do not trickle down to the civic level, then you are indeed naive."
Well they don't. It's all in your mind. The Conservatives and Liberals are ideaologically and politically different parties and to assume that there would be convolescing to one candidate for both is absured.
The Conservative Party isn't all that interested in a civic branch.
Do you possibly think that BCA can hold own to power had they not aligned with BCNDP that had governed over the "lost decade" as Campbell would like to call it.
You need to review your history.
The BCA is constitutionally aligned with the BCNDP in such that the BCA is actually a civic subset of the BCNDP, there's no
"voluntary alignment". It's been that way since the late 1980's when the NDP decided to go further and set civic level groups.
Certainly not so. Such thinking is too naive.
Look in the mirror again. That so-called lost decade, is technically from 1992 to 2001, but could have easily been from 1991 to 1996 had Campbell not fucked up in the 1996 provincial election.
So will the federal GP/LPC alliance have its own trickle down effect? Alberta election is coming up soon and we should see pretty soon how that will play out.
The NDP is very weak in Alberta as it is, there's no comparsion to a similar environment here in B.C.
But in western Canada where conservatives and liberals have bonded under BCNDP reign, it is difficult to see liberals giving up conservatives' support in exchange for greens' support when come 2009 they have to work together again against NDP.
Doesn't matter since at the provincial level, the federal parties are not a factor.
Not to mention NDP will also have to face provincial Greens then, and if you think fed GP is the spoiler, just wait till 2009.
The BC NDP could quite possibily return to their traditional strengths and if that happens, watch out. They will snack on John Nuraney and RIchard Lee, and if they find the right candidate, Harry Bloy is going to be in for
a good fight.
If conservatives and liberals are really ready to work together, especially if they see the effort to take down a powerful NDP mayoral figure in Burnaby, then such an operation from the bottom up is very possible.
If there's a good operating enviroment in the way of a civic party, then that can happen, but as of right now, no such civic party exists.
There is nothing stopping Lee Rankin (former NDP member no less) running against Peter Julian who has campaigned against each other for a very long period
Rankin can run as an independent if he wants, sure. The federal Liberals wouldn't take him (they had him twice), and the Conservatives most likely wouldn't take him either because he's not a Conservative.
and there is also nothing stopping federal Liberal from recruiting/appointing Mayor Corrigan, equally qualified as Senator Larry Campbell, to run against Bill Siksay both of which will cause the kind of strategic voting LPC is hoping to achieve and CPC may very well follow.
That won't happen. The federal Liberals are in no shape to promise something that Corrigan would want, and as appointments, that has to be one of the most stupidest things the federal Liberals do (amongst many dumb things they have done in the past).
Obvously the democratic system of allowing the membership to vote and choose doesn't matter with that party.
The point however is that the trend of anti-NDP support consolidating has gone on for some time, and with GP gaining historical popularity, alliance at the final frontier may very well create surprises people are not expecting, and God knows how many surprises LPC had on BCNDP already.
Hacen't seen any that has caused the BCNDP to shake in their runners.
Ideologies are themselves only ideologies. But when it comes to the distribution of power and real governance, they are gone faster than a heartbeat. That is why Liberals have so much luck recruiting prominent NDP figures into the party and conservatives are doing that to liberals every other day it seems. But of course NDP had their own recruitment when they recruited ideologically opposed Gordon Wilson into the government. But national coalition with Liberals is hard to foresee since NDP are fighting for power with the liberals across the nation on all three levels of government.
So one asks if it is to GP's advantage to side with the establishment or to side with the opposition. Nationally they have chosen to side with the opposition ready to play the assassin for LPC. Provincially with Gordon Campbell already going green, GP may be safer to align with BCL against NDP as well rather than risking going radical, and all it takes is one riding for GP to take on NDP incumbent. But one thing is for sure, the way Greens are aligning themselves locally, they have already aimed at NDP establishment, and with them nationally and provincially opposing NDP, it is not difficult to see where the Greens' votes will flow to come November.
One is not so sure of Greens' influence in TB but we should know soon enough with nomination meeting coming up quite soon, but a federal nominee against NDP this early is a sign that Greens have removed the option of aligning NDP in the near future, and if the previous poster is right about Greens supporting TB, then I raw number I would say GP members will help overcome the numbers advantage that BCA used to have from its union members and any landslide victory BCA is expecting will be nothing but a fairytale.
"Ideologies are themselves only ideologies."
True, but ideaologies are party foundations. Each party has a different ideaology when it comes to economics and handling government.
"But when it comes to the distribution of power and real governance, they are gone faster than a heartbeat."
Some have caused heart attacks.
"That is why Liberals have so much luck recruiting prominent NDP figures into the party and conservatives are doing that to liberals every other day it seems."
They haven't been very successful at it at all. Rankin ran once as a federal Liberal and lost, and when he tried again, he never made it past the nomination.
The federal Liberals also have this idiotic concept that the leader can directly appoint candidates, which should be deleted
from their constitution. It's a slap in the face to the serious member of a riding.
"But of course NDP had their own recruitment when they recruited ideologically opposed Gordon Wilson into the government."
Wilson was previous the leader of the Provincial Liberals before he was bounced by the party. He was sitting as a PDA member when the NDP figured they could use him as
a boy to support the Fastcats. It didn't work.
There's many instances of cross overs. That one is not the only one.
"But national coalition with Liberals is hard to foresee since NDP are fighting for power with the liberals across the nation on all three levels of government. "
There would never ever be a national coaltion between the Conservatives and Liberals, ever.
The Conservatives and Liberal membership would never go for it.
"So one asks if it is to GP's advantage to side with the establishment or to side with the opposition. "
Who cares what the GP decides.
"Nationally they have chosen to side with the opposition ready to play the assassin for LPC."
They will be playing the role as sidekick, not assassin.
"Provincially with Gordon Campbell already going green, GP may be safer to align with BCL against NDP as well rather than risking going radical, and all it takes is one riding for GP to take on NDP incumbent."
Possible, but the Greeen Party of BC is seperate from the federal one and they will run their own candidates.
"But one thing is for sure, the way Greens are aligning themselves locally, they have already aimed at NDP establishment, and with them nationally and provincially opposing NDP, it is not difficult to see where the Greens' votes will flow to come November."
There aren't that many so-called
Green Party specific votes to begin with. It really doesn't matter anyway.
One is not so sure of Greens' influence in TB but we should know soon enough with nomination meeting coming up quite soon, but a federal nominee against NDP this early is a sign that Greens have removed the option of aligning NDP in the near future, and if the previous poster is right about Greens supporting TB, then I raw number I would say GP members will help overcome the numbers advantage that BCA used to have from its union members and any landslide victory BCA is expecting will be nothing but a fairytale.
This hypothesis of yours is a fairytale.
There won't be an absolute landslide by the BCA, there will be one or two TB council members elected, but if anyone figures TB is going to receive a major victory on the basis of what TB is like and operates, now they are fooling themselves and smoking those funny cigarettes and halluncinating because of doing it.
"There aren't that many so-called
Green Party specific votes to begin with. It really doesn't matter anyway"
I would say you are wrong. The combined Greens votes, assuming them being absent from the battle of BCA vs TB, will easily give the victory to TB shall they choose to oppose Corrigan. I see them as I see any other group, social conservatives or LGBT groups, all of them form voting blocs that can easily put any party into victory. But Greens so far are simply refusing to align themselves with NDP, that is even more obvious in Vancouver where they are even refusing thinking of going with VV which has even better prospect than TB to unseat a sitting mayor. BCA's expection of any sort of victory, landslide or 50 +1, will be premature. If TB is smart enough to pick someone out of thin air that injects the freshness that people and the Greens are looking for into politics, I think it is very likely Greens may consider backing TB in its campaign to unseat mayor Corrigan.
would say you are wrong. The combined Greens votes, assuming them being absent from the battle of BCA vs TB, will easily give the victory to TB shall they choose to oppose Corrigan."
Nope. Most Green Party people are left wing, and TB is mostly blue-liberal / Conservative.
"I see them as I see any other group, social conservatives or LGBT groups, all of them form voting blocs that can easily put any party into victory.
"social conservatives" are of two types. The religious evangelical kind and the fiscal conservative/socially responsible kind.
The two groups are not congruent with each other.
You're over-extending yourself as persual.
"But Greens so far are simply refusing to align themselves with NDP, that is even more obvious in Vancouver where they are even refusing thinking of going with VV which has even better prospect than TB to unseat a sitting mayor."
Vancouver is different, and Vision Vancouver is not equivalent to TB or the BCA.
"BCA's expection of any sort of victory, landslide or 50 +1, will be premature. If TB is smart enough to pick someone out of thin air that injects the freshness that people and the Greens are looking for into politics, I think it is very likely Greens may consider backing TB in its campaign to unseat mayor Corrigan.
Good luck for that one to happen.
To begin with, given what has happened to it since it was started several years ago, TB is not particularly smart, and never has been to any great degree.
The Greens in the last election only managed to get between 3.5% and 4%of the total valid votes cast, and that did not have any effect on the outcome.
Translating and expolating that to the results of the civic level, and basing it on the actual voter turnout, the outcome doesn't add much of anything to the accrued support for TB.
All one would end up with is a +2 or 3 votes across the 8 or so candidates running for TB and BCA,
since Green supportive voters would most likely look at candidates who are green, rather than yellow or blue or red.
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