James still toast; Campbell comes for dinner
Next week Premier, and more importantly BC Liberal leader, Gordon Campbell makes his way to Burnaby for a party fundraiser. On October 10, the Liberal MLAs for Burnaby - Harry Bloy, Richard Lee, and John Nuraney - plus their orphaned riding of Burnaby-Edmonds will be in fighting form to bring in the cash needed to keep their seats and add another.
As for the other seat, Edmonds, Wednesday night will be the chance for some of the early and eager hopefuls to make themselves known. The crowd at the rubber chicken event will be the people that successful candidate needs to tie into to help finance their battle against NDP MLA Raj Chouhan, who has been getting a slightly bigger profile in recent weeks.
Despite all that inside politics, the real issue will be Campbell's address to the crowd. Expect Gateway, the government's star program, to feature prominently. Burnaby is the main battleground of Gateway as the majority of council wants further debate while the province wants to pave. Thankfully, the Premier has a friendly group to take the NDP and their allies to task over opposition to more lanes and bridges. Campbell should be happy he not only has his government's record to champion but also another group's support in his fight with the anti-Gatewayers. Additionally, Carole James's position on the issue has done a good job destroying the credibility of many other anti-Gateway groups.
With a situation like that, Campbell's Wednesday dinner guests should be in for a feast, or at least the Premier feasting on the directionless NDP.
As for the other seat, Edmonds, Wednesday night will be the chance for some of the early and eager hopefuls to make themselves known. The crowd at the rubber chicken event will be the people that successful candidate needs to tie into to help finance their battle against NDP MLA Raj Chouhan, who has been getting a slightly bigger profile in recent weeks.
Despite all that inside politics, the real issue will be Campbell's address to the crowd. Expect Gateway, the government's star program, to feature prominently. Burnaby is the main battleground of Gateway as the majority of council wants further debate while the province wants to pave. Thankfully, the Premier has a friendly group to take the NDP and their allies to task over opposition to more lanes and bridges. Campbell should be happy he not only has his government's record to champion but also another group's support in his fight with the anti-Gatewayers. Additionally, Carole James's position on the issue has done a good job destroying the credibility of many other anti-Gateway groups.
With a situation like that, Campbell's Wednesday dinner guests should be in for a feast, or at least the Premier feasting on the directionless NDP.
posted by Robert Burnaby at 6:09 PM
14 Comments:
Nothing new there.
Get Moving BC Liberals will be there. People will be shilling for Team Bloy and Richard and John will be the only smart 2009 provincial election candidates in the room.
Not exactly rocket science that Gateway will be at the forefront.
Expect some silly statements regarding the obvious - Corrigan and his Burnaby Comrade Association doesn't support 60 km cycle paths and public transit across a river.
Even if it is the same person, anyone in politics would regard the position of Premier to be far more important than the position of leader of a political party.
Remember Gordon was leader of the BC Liberals when he was also Leader of the Opposition.
With BCL already locking up nothern Burnaby ridings, Derek Corrigan v John Nuraney is the only likely match up Derek can conceivably with much of the riding located in a business district he cant possibly represent.
Why will Corrigan want to run to sit on the opposition backbench anyway, unless he has some leadership ambition and that is certainly no secret and shall he decide to take on Carole James appointee Gabriel Yiu in the nomination process, for him the political career will effectively end shall he a single nomination race. This is not to mention current grassroot's favourite son candidate selected against Carole James is far more popular than him.
Who really know what will happen 3 years from 2008 however, will Bill Siksay run for a fourth term who really has no chance matching predecessor and is expected to be challenged next election. Shall he lose the next election, all the talk about Derek giving up his mayoral incumbency to run in 08 MLA election will simply die and get replaced by the other discussion.
"With BCL already locking up nothern Burnaby ridings, Derek Corrigan v John Nuraney is the only likely match up Derek can conceivably with much of the riding located in a business district he cant possibly represent. "
Not this again.
First Burnaby North isn't locked up by any means. Richard won by a very narrow margin, and its probable that he would lose the seat.
Derek would not run as a provincial candidate unless there was good probability that the NDP would form govenment. Corrigian looks stupid many times, but the guy is politically smart and would not give up a Mayor's chair for a seat in Opposition.
"Why will Corrigan want to run to sit on the opposition backbench anyway, unless he has some leadership ambition and that is certainly no secret and shall he decide to take on Carole James appointee Gabriel Yiu in the nomination process, for him the political career will effectively end shall he a single nomination race. This is not to mention current grassroot's favourite son candidate selected against Carole James is far more popular than him."
One does not need to sit first in Opposition. There's been many instances where a person has become leader and then later ran in a by-election somewhere. But that's assuming that Corrigian wants to run for leader. He would be contested by more stronger more widely accepted contenders such as Farnsworth, Dix, etc.
"Who really know what will happen 3 years from 2008 however, will Bill Siksay run for a fourth term who really has no chance matching predecessor and is expected to be challenged next election."
No surprise there, Siskay will have
a real challenger this time around, but not from the federal Liberal's hand chosen recycled candidate.
"Shall he lose the next election, all the talk about Derek giving up his mayoral incumbency to run in 08 MLA election will simply die and get replaced by the other discussion."
There is no 08 MLA election.
It is not surprise that Derek wants something more than being a mayor in a small municipality, be it at Victoria or Ottawa. I have also pointed out that Raj Chouhan will likely resign shall Derek Corrigan successfully defeat Carole to lead the party against a new BCL leader whose popularity Derek simply cant match. So maybe getting something that he wants is not so good at the end.
With regard to his MP ambition, his BCA gang member Pietro, who now sits on the city council and has faced Richard Lee three times in a row with 4th time contest very likely, lost the nomination against Bill Siksay, he has been trying to find chance to back Peter Julian whenever he can to make his natural transition from a single-digit members city council to the legislature smooth.
Even if Bill Siksay wins another term late07/early08 against the government party candidate (very likely a cabinet prospect), there is nothing protecting him from a challenge launched by Derek Corrigan who will receive unanimous support from the city council and school board in the nomination race process while Bill Siksay wont even have a single public representative in his riding other than himself. Even if Svend Robinson comes back to run against Richard Lee as his support in the riding had vastly evaporated. Contrasting our mayor's visible presence around the local media/community with Bill Siksay's reserve personality stemming from working as a parliamentary assistant, it will not surprise me to see Bill Siksay simply forgo his incumbency and pass the torch to Derek Corrigan, maybe in exchange for a chance to run for the mayoral seat facing Lee Rankin.
"It is not surprise that Derek wants something more than being a mayor in a small municipality, be it at Victoria or Ottawa. I have also pointed out that Raj Chouhan will likely resign shall Derek Corrigan successfully defeat Carole to lead the party against a new BCL leader whose popularity Derek simply cant match."
That isn't going to happen. There will be other contenders for an NDP leadership, and the NDP will select the candidate with wider appeal. Derek doesn't cut it in that regard so he'll end up as an also-ran.
The NDP will want leadership, but the smart membership will select a contender who has political will and broad acceptance. Derek represents the old time NDP, something which the current NDP does not want.
"So maybe getting something that he wants is not so good at the end. "
Few people get what they want 100%, 100% of the time,
"With regard to his MP ambition, his BCA gang member Pietro, who now sits on the city council and has faced Richard Lee three times in a row with 4th time contest very likely, lost the nomination against Bill Siksay, he has been trying to find chance to back Peter Julian whenever he can to make his natural transition from a single-digit members city council to the legislature smooth."
Julian does not Caledino's support.
He's unfortunately built up his own support base.
But Calendino may not run as a candidate in 2009. That's not set into stone.
"Even if Bill Siksay wins another term late07/early08 against the government party candidate (very likely a cabinet prospect),"
I'd say least likely since the Harper government would not elevate him immediately to Cabinet, over let's say the Conservative winner from Quadra.
"there is nothing protecting him from a challenge launched by Derek Corrigan who will receive unanimous support from the city council and school board in the nomination race process while Bill Siksay wont even have a single public representative in his riding other than himself. Even if Svend Robinson comes back to run against Richard Lee as his support in the riding had vastly evaporated."
Isn't going to happen.
Good grief, Svend Robinson? What are you on? Robinson isn't coming
back to Burnaby.
Contrasting our mayor's visible presence around the local media/community with Bill Siksay's reserve personality stemming from working as a parliamentary assistant, it will not surprise me to see Bill Siksay simply forgo his incumbency and pass the torch to Derek Corrigan, maybe in exchange for a chance to run for the mayoral seat facing Lee Rankin.
You might try another hobby. This hypothesis is worse than the last one.
You're just hoping Derek leaves the Mayor's Office for an easy Mayor win by Team Bloy.
No one is naive enough to believe that Derek will risk his own political future by leaving his deceptively safe seat, which can be easily taken away with a strong star anti-NDP candidate who can appeal to wider the wider electorates than an ailing mayor.
Will Derek actually run against Bill Siksay? Stranger things have happened and Bill Siksay has never been as intimate with BCA as his Burnaby southern counterpart. And Derek is really one MP endorsement away from taking out Bill Siksay, but it is too early to speculate on such matters as we do not even know if Bill Siksay can be re-elected against the government party candidate.
But back to the issue of BCL sweeping Burnaby, all BCL incumbents are expecting easy holds. With the nomination race coming up however, proxy civil war within NDP will be observed as the Corrigans will soon take on Carole establishment loyalists. Gabriel Yiu may not be stopped unless Derek Corrigan appoints his wife to run against him. If he cant guard his own territory against these parachutes, it looks to me that maybe we have given a little bit more credibility than what he has worked for.
"No one is naive enough to believe that Derek will risk his own political future by leaving his deceptively safe seat, which can be easily taken away with a strong star anti-NDP candidate who can appeal to wider the wider electorates than an ailing mayor."
Someone is living a fantasy world.
Ever thought that the BCA would if Derek requests would find a good replacement?
I'd rather vote for a good alternative candidate for Mayor who will do good things for Burnaby rather than a so-called "anti-NDP candidate" hand picked by Harry Bloy.
"Will Derek actually run against Bill Siksay? Stranger things have happened and Bill Siksay has never been as intimate with BCA as his Burnaby southern counterpart.
The simple answer to that is "No".
Derek wouldn't run against Siskay,
since he has no desire to do so.
"And Derek is really one MP endorsement away from taking out Bill Siksay, but it is too early to speculate on such matters as we do not even know if Bill Siksay can be re-elected against the government party candidate."
Siskay will most likely be re-elected since it is very difficult to unseat an incumbent. Also worth mentioning is that a few non-NDPers voted for Siskay. The numbers verify that.
"But back to the issue of BCL sweeping Burnaby, all BCL incumbents are expecting easy holds. "
Don't be so sure. Richard for example barely made it through last time.
John Nuraney didn't exactly end up with a huge majority either.
"With the nomination race coming up however, proxy civil war within NDP will be observed as the Corrigans will soon take on Carole establishment loyalists."
Problem with that is that Corrigan
does have a strong hold on the BCA,
not the Carole loyalists.
"Gabriel Yiu may not be stopped unless Derek Corrigan appoints his wife to run against him."
Problem with that is that Yiu was
supported by Corrigan.
The NDP does not appoint candidates. It's up to the membership.
"If he cant guard his own territory against these parachutes, it looks to me that maybe we have given a little bit more credibility than what he has worked for."
Looks to us that you needseriously consider taking up a new hobby such as macramae.
Given Gabriel Yiu's opponent in 05, who in their right mind would not endorse him, however the third nominee who withdrew his name from the race later ran with BCA for city council before losing. But maybe this apparent "unity" behind NDP is just what Derek needs to get his candidate acclaimed and backed by Gabriel Yiu in a vulnerable BCL riding.
For Derek Corrigan himself and his ambition for an MP seat against the northerner, Bill Siksay 3 yrs into his terms has still not left an impression on the electorates, while Derek has a better connection with federal NDP establishment. He can still use his mayoral incumbency to his advantage, but only for another 3 yrs. But of course, that is after Bill Siksay gets through another "easy victory" with a mandate of 30-something percent. I wonder which one will actually work to his advantage, to have a government member in his city that he finally gets to oppose and protest or Bill Siksay that he is hoping to succeed. One thing is for sure though, that BCA influence over Burnaby is fading and even if he wins the next election, he may be governing in the minority against a majority united solely to oppose the mayor's own party and that simply wont be pretty.
"Given Gabriel Yiu's opponent in 05, who in their right mind would not endorse him, however the third nominee who withdrew his name from the race later ran with BCA for city council before losing."
Don't expect that to happen again.
Besides there were losers on the other side too, eh?
"But maybe this apparent "unity" behind NDP is just what Derek needs to get his candidate acclaimed and backed by Gabriel Yiu in a vulnerable BCL riding."
Not that again. What is with this mania with Derek? Corrigan doesn't
have a 'candidate'. All ridings are vulnerable. SOme more than others, but all ridings are vulnerable.
"For Derek Corrigan himself and his ambition for an MP seat against the northerner, Bill Siksay 3 yrs into his terms has still not left an impression on the electorates, while Derek has a better connection with federal NDP establishment. "
Siskay is doing fine, he'll pass nomination quite easily. The federal NDP isn't going to toss out an incumbent MP.
"He can still use his mayoral incumbency to his advantage, but only for another 3 yrs. But of course, that is after Bill Siksay gets through another "easy victory" with a mandate of 30-something percent. I wonder which one will actually work to his advantage, to have a government member in his city that he finally gets to oppose and protest or Bill Siksay that he is hoping to succeed. One thing is for sure though, that BCA influence over Burnaby is fading and even if he wins the next election, he may be governing in the minority against a majority united solely to oppose the mayor's own party and that simply wont be pretty."
DOn't be so sure. The NDP changes
from time to time. There are weak times and strong time, and the NDP in 2005 is about as weak as they'll get.
The NDP in Burnaby as a political organization is still in intact despite the weakness showed by Carole James. The NDP in Burnaby has been strong when the provincial wing has been weak in the past.
Don't expect an easy 'hand over' from the NDP to whom ever the other side might be.
The voters of Burnaby vote for the candidates as people, not usually for the parties they represent. In fact many BCL's voted for NDPers including Corrigan. The numbers show that quite easily.
Corrigan will have a rougher ride next time, but it won't be easy sledding for his opposition Mayor candidate.
A few people will make sure of that, especially if it's found out that the opposition Mayor candidate is not much more than the hand picked preference of one MLA.
This is supposed to be a democracy not a totalitarian dictatorship run for the wishes of some politician.
Corrigan's cock up on the oil spill where he quickly blamed KM and then had egg on his face later when facts come out showed him to be the real politician in training that he was and continues to be.
This guy will never make it provincially or federally. Except maybe to be a freak show and a laughing stock whiner.
Sort of like Svend was.
Corrigan wouldn't make it outside of Burnaby since Boundary road and North Road is where the Kool Aid stops flowing.
The only reason he is still around is the competition he has faced so far. A Fireman would lived close to the US border, a political newbie who believes his own hype and Team Burnaby (2005) enough said (good guy who didn't really want to be there).
If it only takes a non-resident candidate unheard of by people at large to provide shock therapy to our sitting mayor, just think when a real star candidate does decide to run, how much worse can the result be fore Derek.
"If it only takes a non-resident candidate unheard of by people at large to provide shock therapy to our sitting mayor, just think when a real star candidate does decide to run, how much worse can the result be fore Derek."
Well that wouldn't happen as it is very rare to have a non-resident as Mayor, even more so those unheard of by the people. Such a person would have a very difficult time getting elected.
The people would want to know why, and with the political watchers, who exactly brought this person into town.
I don't believe in these star candidates. They are too hyped up by the politicos and a few end going down in flames.
More interested in the content rather than the packaging.
I'd much rather have a local person, well known and well liked in the community who is ready to serve the citizens of the burg.
That's far more important than the aspirations of politicos who try to deliver 'star candidates' to the voters who do that for political points and adding to their sense of self-worth.
Good words.
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