Dion in Burnaby
posted by Robert Burnaby at 1:48 PM
Friday, May 23, 2008
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32 Comments:
Why would he even bother?
He's 10% in the polls right now.
Burnaby's goin' NDP next election.
Depends, is Mayor Corrigan running with federal Liberals? Even if he gets re-elected the next time, he still wont match Peter Julian. The only chance he has to become an MP is to run as a federal LIB and everyone knows that.
As for Bill Siksay, looking at the vote share he received last time, he is far from being safe, very far, similar to Mayor Corrigan's chance at re-election.
Depends, is Mayor Corrigan running with federal Liberals?
Apparently not. Why would he?
Even if he gets re-elected the next time, he still wont match Peter Julian.
Why would he match Peter Julian?
The only chance he has to become an MP is to run as a federal LIB and everyone knows that.
Yeh right. As if running for the federal Liberals is going to guarantee the candidate a win.
Get real.
As for Bill Siksay, looking at the vote share he received last time, he is far from being safe, very far, similar to Mayor Corrigan's chance at re-election.
Doesn't really matter. As long as he wins, that's what matters.
The BC Liberal candidates lost alot of support in 2005 compared to what they received in 2001. Strange that you don't mention that. But I guess your silly statement applies only to those parties you don't like, right?
Corrigan has a chance to get re-elected again too.
Be around when it happens.
The federal NDP in BC has been consistently 1/3 below their 2006 BC vote in all polls including the big Mustel polls and their latest.
Add to that, the BC provincial NDP is in the tank at 31% (Mustel).
The federal NDP usually receives 10% less in BC compared to their provincial counterparts standing in the polls.
Burnaby Douglas was close last time. If the federal NDP's 1/3 vote loss in BC holds on voting day, the NDP indeed loses Burnaby Douglas.
Not nessesarily, Charlie, but keep tryin'.
the polls for the provincial NDP don't exactly match the results for the federal NDP. In fact there are many BC Liberals in Burnaby Douglas that have voted for Bill Siskay (the results speak for themselves).
It's not a question of what party Siskay runs for, its a question of how well he has represented his constitutents and he seems to be pretty good at it, despite his politics.
Same can be said for Julian.
What counts is the number of votes that goes into the ballot box on election night.
Nothing else matters.
Not to mention the vote shift towards centre-right. While Carole James strives to move BCNDP into the centre and replicate Tony Blair and Bill Clinton's "triangulation" strategy, Jack Layton continues to pull NDP back into the socialist fold and that tag simply will not go away, and that too applies to our BCA, which was founded on communist principles with counterparts located in Cuba and China.
So this question remains. Can NDP lose Svend Robinson's old riding? Some do not believe that will happen basing their belief on the 3% "landslide" victory over LIB in 04 & 06. With the surge in popularity with Tories as observed from Van-Qua by-election victory, I would say it will be premature to for NDP declare victories at the present moment when they may not help re-elect the only MLA they have in Burnaby.
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"the polls for the provincial NDP don't exactly match the results for the federal NDP."
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Absolutely right Charlie. :)
BC provincial NDP: 31% Mustel (42% in 2005 election)
BC federal NDP: 22% Mustel (29% in 2006 election)
Doesn't matter how "good" an MP is, on election day they are dragged down with the overall provincial numbers.
Burnaby Douglas (2006 results):
NDP: 35.6%
Liberal: 33%
Conservative: 27.6%
Just over a third of Burnaby residents, 35.6%, voted for Siksay in 2006.
On average, "44%" of Burnaby residents voted NDP in Willingdon, North, and Edmonds provincially.
Hmmmm... that corresponds with the federal NDP receiving ~10% less than their provincial counerparts.
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"In fact there are many BC Liberals in Burnaby Douglas that have voted for Bill Siskay (the results speak for themselves)."
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Huh? Do your math Charlie! ;)
BC provincial NDP: 31% Mustel (42% in 2005 election)
BC federal NDP: 22% Mustel (29% in 2006 election)
Interesting stat. How is it that with a 10% drop in popularity people are still claiming Kathy Corrigan is going to cakewalk over John Nuraney's body. With opposition party now trailing governing party in the poll during election off-season, Mayor Corrigan who is closely associated with the BCNDP should also think about where his loyalty should lie and should it lie with federal NDP he will likely hit the glass ceiling real soon.
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How is it that with a 10% drop in popularity people are still claiming Kathy Corrigan is going to cakewalk over John Nuraney's body.
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I dunno.
An analysis last week was performed with those same provincial polling results, which showed that the Liberals would "sweep" all of Burnaby's 4 seats, with the NDP only having *10* safe seats out of 85 provincewide.
Go figure!
http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/003077.html#comments
" and that too applies to our BCA, which was founded on communist principles with counterparts located in Cuba and China. "
That's a bit of a stretch. The BCA is hardly communist. The Chinese and Cuban government can also be said to be totalitarian (total rule), but then given the antics of Team Burnaby of late, isn't that true with Team Burnaby? Everyone answers to Raymond Leung or possibly Raghini Rankin??
"So this question remains. Can NDP lose Svend Robinson's old riding?"
Nope.
Some do not believe that will happen basing their belief on the 3% "landslide" victory over LIB in 04 & 06. With the surge in popularity with Tories as observed from Van-Qua by-election victory, I would say it will be premature to for NDP declare victories at the present moment when they may not help re-elect the only MLA they have in Burnaby."
Van Quadra is quite different from Burnaby. There's no comparision that is valid. Different ridings,
different demographic environment.
BC provincial NDP: 31% Mustel (42% in 2005 election)
BC federal NDP: 22% Mustel (29% in 2006 election)
Not really. Since federal elections are different than provincial. Larger electoral districts often covering parts of two provincial ridings.
Burnaby Douglas (2006 results):
NDP: 35.6%
Liberal: 33%
Conservative: 27.6%
Just over a third of Burnaby residents, 35.6%, voted for Siksay in 2006.
Good for them. But you're also missing the voter turnout.
"On average, "44%" of Burnaby residents voted NDP in Willingdon, North, and Edmonds provincially."
and the turnout provincially was...
and averaged to what? A large portion of Burnaby Willingdon does not exist in Burnaby Douglas.
Hmmmm... that corresponds with the federal NDP receiving ~10% less than their provincial counerparts.
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"In fact there are many BC Liberals in Burnaby Douglas that have voted for Bill Siskay (the results speak for themselves)."
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Huh? Do your math Charlie! ;)
Why don't you face reality, Clyde.
BC Liberals have and will vote NDP federally. If you figure that all BC Liberals will vote federal Liberal or Conservative, then I have a used bridge in Kelowna I can sell you today.
"BC Liberals have and will vote NDP federally. If you figure that all BC Liberals will vote federal Liberal or Conservative, then I have a used bridge in Kelowna I can sell you today."
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Hey Charlie, ya gotta be a newbie to BC politics pal. lol
Every federal New Demoocrat strategist *knows* that the BC federal NDP vote is around *10%* less than the provincial NDP vote.
Witness former BC provincial New Democrats such as former premier Ujjal Dosanjh, former IWA head Dave Haggard, former Mike Harcourt assistant Shirley Chan running for the federal Liberals.
Why? 'Cause the federal NDP is toooo left wing.
Vancouver Kingsway has been a federal Liberal seat since 1993, although it encompasses two provincial New Democrat seats.
A good portion of provincial New Democrats votes Liberal federally in Vancouver and environs and Conservative in BC's interior.
That's common knowledge for anyone familiar with BC politics.
Your're now a sayin' that BC Liberals vote NDP federally?... When many provincial New Democrats won't?
Your'e goofy pal. lol
Your're now a sayin' that BC Liberals vote NDP federally?... When many provincial New Democrats won't?"
Many provincial NDPers do vote NDP federally, esp. here in Burnaby.
Besides, Vcr Kingsway is not federal Liberal now. It's Conservative.
Tough to face reality isn't? 8-)
"Many provincial NDPers do vote NDP federally, esp. here in Burnaby."
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Of course, the NDP's left-wing base! lol
~44% of Burnaby residents vote NDP provincially and around 35% vote NDP federally.
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Besides, Vcr Kingsway is not federal Liberal now. It's Conservative.
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You're spinning! 'Cause VK voted in a Liberal who crossed the floor and who likely won't run again and wouldn't win as Tory in VK in any event.
The Libs will win VK once again with their Chinese Canadian candidate Wendy Yuen.
Witness former BC provincial New Democrats such as former premier Ujjal Dosanjh, former IWA head Dave Haggard, former Mike Harcourt assistant Shirley Chan running for the federal Liberals"
Dosanjh ran because the federal Liberals were going to be re-elected. Haggard didn't win.
As for Chan, probably didn't win a seat.
Why? 'Cause the federal NDP is toooo left wing.
Vancouver Kingsway has been a federal Liberal seat since 1993, although it encompasses two provincial New Democrat seats.
That's odd since Vancouver Kingsway
was created most recently in 1996.
Prior to that the area named as Vancouver Kingsway was held by Ian Waddell (NDP).
Sophia Leung got the seat, but she was appointed as a candidate (never ran in a real nomination).
"You're spinning! 'Cause VK voted in a Liberal who crossed the floor and who likely won't run again and wouldn't win as Tory in VK in any event."
What if he does? He can win the riding.
The Libs will win VK once again with their Chinese Canadian candidate Wendy Yuen.
Sure. Not all Chinese Canadians vote federal Liberal.
Kinda tough to beat an incumbent.
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What if he does? He can win the riding.
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lol, VK hasn't been *won* by a Tory since the Diefenbaker sweep of 1958!
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"That's odd since Vancouver Kingsway was created most recently in 1996."
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Huh??? Vancouver Kingsway was originally created in 1952!
http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/about/process/house/hfer/hfer.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&Include=Y&rid=761
Just like every other federal riding in BC, it has endured boundary changes since 1952. So what's the diff? lol
Huh??? Vancouver Kingsway was originally created in 1952!
The name goes back to 1952. The
riding has changed shape many times since then. Different neighbourhoods and different patterns of voting come and go in ridings.
Just like every other federal riding in BC, it has endured boundary changes since 1952. So what's the diff? lol
Geographic surface area. If you're going to compare the riding's outcomes, adjust for differences in geographic surface area. What was Vancouver Kingsway in the 1980's is not Vancouver Kingsway as it exists now.
Compare Vcr Kingsway between riding changes, not afterwards.
Basic fundamentals of electoral anlaysis but I gather the federal Liberals don't teach you guys that sort of thing properly do they?
But no wonder the federal Liberals are messed up. They coyuldn't even get the right kind of leader.
Learn the fundamentals first, then move on to the intermediate stuff and if you can handle that, then move on to the advanced topics
"Basic fundamentals of electoral anlaysis"
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Now ya git it!
BC provincial NDP: 31% Mustel (42% in 2005 election)
BC federal NDP: 22% Mustel (29% in Just 2006 election)
Both the provincial and federal NDP here in BC tanking.
Just read the tea leaves!
Don't too smug. Things can and have in the past turned around.
The NDP have turned themselves around as have the Conservatives and Liberals in the past.
Besides, the BC NDP and federal NDP are pretty much the same in terms of membership.
You're still not getting the big picture.
Factor in voter turnout and the provincial ridings.
Factor in voter turnout and the federal ridings.
Then you'll be headed in the right direction.
Gawd help any campaign if you're involved with it. But if you're involved with the federal Liberals, great. We are grateful for fools like you to help them out 8-)
If you're helping Team Burnaby, even better. They have an environment of incompetent volunteers. You'd fit right in!
"If you're helping Team Burnaby, even better. They have an environment of incompetent volunteers. You'd fit right in!"
Incompetent volunteers that include allies in the form of BCLIB MLA's that BCNDP will not unseat next year?
How much more "successful" is the socialist civic party BCA comparing to the opposition anyway. 10% higher voter turnout and TB would have held council majority and that is not even a question in anyone's mind.
Again, coming back the topic of the reelection for ultra-liberal Svend Robinson's former assistant ideologue in the north. NDP has its strong hold in the south with LIB's former candidate already endorsing an NDP for mayoral election in Vancouver. But in the north Bill Siksay's 3% "landslide" may seem a margin invincible, but Bill Cunningham is certainly not giving up and is trying his best to pull in LIB heavyweights to the riding. And Bill Siksay's supposed lead over the right-wing candidate is about to evaporate with the rise in CON popularity exemplified by Van Qua's by-election. 10% more voter turnout and Bill Siksay may very well fall to the third place. Any who is to believe that Bill Siksay is "safe" will be in for quite a shock come next election.
"Incompetent volunteers that include allies in the form of BCLIB MLA's that BCNDP will not unseat next year?"
Don't be too sure about that.
Most of the Burnaby provincial ridings weren't won by a lot of votes last time, and a few actually
lost BC Liberal suppport compared to 2001.
"How much more "successful" is the socialist civic party BCA comparing to the opposition anyway. "
In terms of volunteering, quite a bit.
They won the mayor's chair and the majority of council, which is what matters.
"10% higher voter turnout and TB would have held council majority and that is not even a question in anyone's mind. "
But TB wasn't able to obtain that
additional 10%. Incompetence I'd say.
"Again, coming back the topic of the reelection for ultra-liberal Svend Robinson's former assistant ideologue in the north.
He is NDP, not 'ultra-liberal'.
"NDP has its strong hold in the south with LIB's former candidate already endorsing an NDP for mayoral election in Vancouver."
He's not 'endorsing'. he's getting paid for the work. Big difference.
"But in the north Bill Siksay's 3% "landslide" may seem a margin invincible, but Bill Cunningham is certainly not giving up and is trying his best to pull in LIB heavyweights to the riding."
Of course not. it's payback time for the riding he's been handed to
twice by the federal Liberal apparatchiks on a plate.
He's saying "thank you for giving me the nomination on a plate. I will work hard tomake it valuable for you"
"And Bill Siksay's supposed lead over the right-wing candidate is about to evaporate with the rise in CON popularity exemplified by Van Qua's by-election."
Again, the two are not comparable. Two different ridings, two different neighbourhoods.
"10% more voter turnout and Bill Siksay may very well fall to the third place."
10% more voter turnout and Bill Siskay could very much add to his
vote count.
"Any who is to believe that Bill Siksay is "safe" will be in for quite a shock come next election."
As will Bill Cunningham.
The voters will ultimately decide.
They tend to go with incumbent MP's who actually do things, rather than a candidate who doesn't do much except be a receipient of political privilege.
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"Most of the Burnaby provincial ridings weren't won by a lot of votes last time, and a few actually
lost BC Liberal suppport compared to 2001."
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Huh?
BC NDP 2001 - 22% - 2 seats/79
BC NDP 2005 - 42% - 33 seats/79
BC NDP 2008 - 31% - 15-20 seats/85
(Mustel)
http://www.publiceyeonline.com/archives/002353.html
Huh?
BC NDP 2001 - 22% - 2 seats/79
BC NDP 2005 - 42% - 33 seats/79
BC NDP 2008 - 31% - 15-20 seats/85
(Mustel)
Must have had a lapse in intelligence caused by that "huh" of yours.
1. BC NDP 2001 - that's the end
result of the 2001 election. A rare
occurance (the opposition had never previously been pushed down that far).
2. BC NDP 2005 - end result of an election, but notice the jump in
ambient support over 2001.
Now this is the one that does not fit with the others:
3. BC NDP 2008 - a sampling of support. It's not really relective of the end result of the 2009 election since elections are volitile.
Polls change from time to time between elections.
If you can tone down those grunt "huh"'s maybe you can help out with the campaign. You can fold the sheets or put stamps on the envelopes.
"Polls change from time to time between elections."
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Historically during the 1970's, 1980's, and 1990's and even into 2004 the opposition in BC has led the polls.
But the NDP at 31% is not only behind the governing party, they are behind *18%* (same as one year ago) and the NDP is at its lowest point in over 5 years with its 31% with Mustel.
It's all about *trends* in polling and as Vaughn Palmer recently stated in his May 10, 2008 column:
"...the governing party is in an exceptionally comfortable position in the polls, one that is **unprecedented** in modern times."
The only question in BC is how large the spread between the Liberals and NDP will be on election day.
Still doesn't mean an easy win in Burnaby, Sunshine.
Despite having a non NDP government in the 1980's, Burnaby was quite the NDP territory.
never ever get complancent and arrogant in campaigning.
Always run your campaign as if you expect to lose.
The spread between the Liberals and the NDP could also be quite narrow.
It won't take much in terms of voter support to take out the three Liberal MLAs.
Note that Palmer has said 'exceptional'.
How long the current position of the BC Liberal lasts is anyone's guess.
Something over time will utlimately
give and cause the BC Liberals to lose support.
It happens to every party.
Be there when it happens.
If James, Dix, Farnworth and Ralston are on their game, the BC NDP will have saved up a couple of gems, that could give them a 10 per cent jump in the polls during the course of the next provincial election campaign.
All they need to do is pick up another four or five points between now and the official start of the campaign, and all these early polls are made completely irrelevant.
And methinks the carbon tax just might be that issue.
It's possble. The BC Liberals made a dumb move with this carbon tax concept. It sounds good to the academics and the Ministry of Enviroment, but once that tax kicks in, the people aren't going to like it, since it will be added to the price of gas, raising the base price even more.
I agree, if carbon tax does kick in within the next 12 months, I am afraid Gordon Campbell will have a very difficult time to get re-elected. Can you imagine Raj Chouchan and Kathy Corrigan campaigning to repeal carbon taxes? Or would Adrian Dix force Carole James to adopt an even more radical position?
How is it relevant locally and federally? The more moderate BCNDP becomes, such as the time of Glen Clark, the more likely BCA is able to take a position that is more moderate. That is why Carole Taylor was able to help Mayor Corrigan, who is closely associated with the provincial socialist party, gaining slight majority without looking too liberal. Given that the nature of BCA and BCNDP however, if BCNDP has decided to demonstrate itself as more "tree loving" than BCLIB, then those whose names have been "tainted"/mentioned in provincial campaigns may be in danger, namely Pietro Calendino and Sav Dhaliwal.
"I agree, if carbon tax does kick in within the next 12 months, I am afraid Gordon Campbell will have a very difficult time to get re-elected. "
Especially when people start seeing yet another increase in gas prices since that carbon tax is a percentage of gas price, not a fixed dollar amount. That $100 reward isn't going to account for much.
Can you imagine Raj Chouchan and Kathy Corrigan campaigning to repeal carbon taxes?"
Very could happen. The federal Liberals bleated and howled over the GST, but they kept it.
It's a valuable issue to the Opposition no matter what party. Taxes. Especially this carbon tax which isn't really nessesary.
"Or would Adrian Dix force Carole James to adopt an even more radical position?"
Possible. The Opposition if it sees an opportunity, will take it.
Been done before, with disasterous
consequences to a government.
"How is it relevant locally and federally? The more moderate BCNDP becomes, such as the time of Glen Clark,"
The NDP wasn't moderate during the time of Glen Clark. They were government, but less feisty than they were as Opposition before.
Harcourt was more moderate than Glen Clark.
"the more likely BCA is able to take a position that is more moderate."
Not really applicable since the BCA's politics is civic.
"That is why Carole Taylor was able to help Mayor Corrigan, who is closely associated with the provincial socialist party, gaining slight majority without looking too liberal."
Sort of. Corrigan is an NDP member. That isn't new.
"Given that the nature of BCA and BCNDP however, if BCNDP has decided to demonstrate itself as more "tree loving" than BCLIB, then those whose names have been "tainted"/mentioned in provincial campaigns may be in danger, namely Pietro Calendino and Sav Dhaliwal."
Ain't going to happen, since the NDP is more eco-aware than the BC Liberals ever were.
Sav could run, but Caledino would not since he's already been an MLA.
But he could run again against Richard Lee.
Be in the riding when that happens.
Let us not forget Save and Pietro are running for re-election. Along with Nick they are from the socialist wing of BCA and are being saved as voters are not as repelled by BCNDP now more moderate than ever.
But, where does our mayor stand on carbon tax. It will be interesting to see how his view may differ from the party that his wife is running with.
Really doesn't matter if Sav or Pietro are not part of the moderate NDP.
If the voters figure they are worthy of re-election, so be it.
The carbon tax is not a civic issue, it's a provincial one, and
the BC Liberals made the wrong move in adding more taxes to an already burdened taxpayer voter.
So the BCA has both a socialist and a non-socialist wing? How is that possible since core socialist ideals as applied to government does not really apply to civic level governance.
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