Monday, May 12, 2008

Welcome to Bennett territory

One year from now, polls will be closing in the redistributed electoral districts as hopefuls from the BC Liberals, NDP, Greens and countless other upstarts will be awaiting the counting of ballots.

Gordon Campbell and a team of veteran and newcomer Liberals will likely be headed to Victoria to remain on the government benches until 2013 - and most importanly during those two weeks in February 2010 that British Columbians could not trust to the New Democratic Party. Campbell, if he can pull off the hat trick, will be the first three-term Premier in more than a quarter century and the first one not named Bennett in almost a century.

Carole James could likely lead a smaller caucus back to Victoria for four more years of agony for the political left. James's defeat could either produce another four uneventful years for an overmatched opposition or a social democratic feud for control between Adrian Dix and other leadership hopefuls, likely to include Bruce Ralston, Harry Lali, and Mike Farnworth.

The Greens will most probably remain a shut out protest party who could not pull the environmental vote from either the NDP or the Liberals.

15 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nauseating statements like that can only come from someone who is blindly loyal to Gordon Campbell or is hoping to be noticed for a government appointment.

Big difference between Campbell and Bennett.

Bennett had alot more respect in his political party than Campbell does in his (well blindly loyal BC Young Liberals affected by too much sugar excepted).

5/12/2008 10:05 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't forget Gregor Robertson. He's a likely nominee for leader once Carole is gone. Why do you think he's running for Mayor of Vancouver? He wants to be Premier.

Dix, Farnworth or Ralston would all be far better leaders than James, who has been pathetic and weak.

5/12/2008 11:52 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Both would be better than Campbell
since Campbell is arrogant, but the big problem is that both are NDPers.

Look for Campbell to continue his arrogance and the BC Liberal political hacks their self-importance in the year ahead.

Hopefully the Campbell Liberals will exit the election with a reduced seat count, but still a majority.

Robertson is one to watch in the year ahead.

5/13/2008 11:25 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It the NDP wants to win government, they need to win in places like Maple Ridge, Burnaby, Mission, Kamloops, Prince George and Cranbrook. I would suggest that Ralston or Farnworth would be the leaders who could do that. Dix, possibly. Gregor Robertson, never. What to watch will be how each would be leader performs in their own constituency in 2009 election. Does they win or lose? Does their margin of victory increase or lose?

5/13/2008 7:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It the NDP wants to win government, they need to win in places like Maple Ridge, Burnaby, Mission, Kamloops, Prince George and Cranbrook."

That plus a few additional Vancouver ridings.


"I would suggest that Ralston or Farnworth would be the leaders who could do that. Dix, possibly. Gregor Robertson, never."

Dix probable. He was tied to the Glen Clark government and that could come back to haunt him.


"What to watch will be how each would be leader performs in their own constituency in 2009 election

Does they win or lose? Does their margin of victory increase or lose?

Campbell will doubt win his, and James shouldn't have any trouble with hers.

As for margin of victory, it would change but not by a significant amount that would be the subject of
endless political debate.

Campbell already has one thing against him.

His trademark arrogance and the anemic environment for volunteers within the BC Liberals. The NDP on the other hand have a bland leader, but they have a much better environment for their own supporters than do the BC Liberals for theirs.

5/14/2008 12:19 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vaughn Palmer said yesterday that Liberal losses in the swinging heartland ridings of Pr. Geo. and 'Loops, plus the loss of just a few Lower Mainland seats - including just one in Burnaby- could propel the NDP to government.

Unlikely, but ... ?
Pick one Burnaby Liberal who might lose.

How about that crusading anti-communist, John Nuraney, and his recent red-baiting quotes in the Burnaby NOW?

Hey John:

Whatever happened to that great hospital rebuilding program you promised way back in 2002? Burnaby Hospital needs an upgrade!

Know anybody who would support rebuilding Burnaby Hospital under a private-public partnership!!!

Now that's a winning strategy!!!

5/14/2008 2:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have no doubt that James and Campbell will handily win their ridings again.

What I am suggesting is that the BC NDP should be looking at how their future possible leaders perform in their own ridings.

Does Dix's margin of victory in 2009 in Kingsway increase or decrease from 2005?

Does Farnworth's in Port Coquitlam increase or decrease?

Does Ralston's in Surrey increase or decrease?

How these possible future leaders perform in their own ridings in an overall provincial environment that is not entirely positive for the NDP will give hints as to what they could do as leader.

5/14/2008 2:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What I am suggesting is that the BC NDP should be looking at how their future possible leaders perform in their own ridings.

"Does Dix's margin of victory in 2009 in Kingsway increase or decrease from 2005?"


Harry Bloy's went down in 2005
to 2001.

Does Farnworth's in Port Coquitlam increase or decrease?

Does John Nuranaey's?

Does Ralston's in Surrey increase or decrease?

Does Richard Lee's?

How these possible future leaders perform in their own ridings in an overall provincial environment that is not entirely positive for the NDP will give hints as to what they could do as leader.

Not exactly, Sunshine.

There wouldn't be any comparative in 2009 since the 2009 election will use the new riding boundaries not the old, and comparing the results of the old to the current ridings is not accurate.

5/14/2008 4:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"There wouldn't be any comparative in 2009 since the 2009 election will use the new riding boundaries not the old, and comparing the results of the old to the current ridings is not accurate."
New riding boundaries are certainly not favoring NDP in Burnaby. Harry Bloy was stronger in Burnaby than in Coquitlam and comparing his 2001 to 2005 is like comparing pre-war Bush vs post-war Bush, BCLIB could have run with a paper doll against Bart and still won in 2001. He will choose the easier riding to run, which is in Burnaby.

What about Richard Lee? Richard is by far the most popular anti-NDP politician in Burnaby, and it wont matter who BCNDP will nominate.

As for John Nuraney? He should have lost in 2005 had NDP decided to run a more experienced candidate who knows how to run elections. But BCNDP ran someone who is obviously a rookie in provincial politics and lost. With John Nuraney's riding redrawn to favor his -reelection, one wonders if BCNDP have learned their lesson.

The only riding that I see in play is Raj Chouhan's who sits in the very back in Victoria. Voters in the riding opted for a backbencher in opposition instead of a prominent cabinet minister. If as our resident blogger had predicted BCLIB will win another outright majority, maybe it will benefit the riding's constituents more if they choose to side with the government this time.

5/14/2008 5:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"New riding boundaries are certainly not favoring NDP in Burnaby. Harry Bloy was stronger in Burnaby than in Coquitlam and comparing his 2001 to 2005 is like comparing pre-war Bush vs post-war Bush, BCLIB could have run with a paper doll against Bart and still won in 2001. He will choose the easier riding to run, which is in Burnaby. "

Sure he will. He wants to take the easy route, considering that he has built up quite a support base in Coquitlam and he now wants throw that away for a run in Burnaby? Talk about the voters in Coquitlam being used.

The dynamics of politics would mean he should have kept his support base level in his Burquitlam riding, but didn't.

"What about Richard Lee? Richard is by far the most popular anti-NDP politician in Burnaby, and it wont matter who BCNDP will nominate. "

Wrong. Richard is the most popular BC Liberal politician in Burnaby.



"As for John Nuraney? He should have lost in 2005 had NDP decided to run a more experienced candidate who knows how to run elections. But BCNDP ran someone who is obviously a rookie in provincial politics and lost. With John Nuraney's riding redrawn to favor his -reelection, one wonders if BCNDP have learned their lesson. "


One wonders if the BC Liberals have learned any lessons too.


"The only riding that I see in play is Raj Chouhan's who sits in the very back in Victoria. Voters in the riding opted for a backbencher in opposition instead of a prominent cabinet minister."

Wrong. Patti Sahota was hardly prominent since she only got that cabinet post in Feburary 2005, the session went until late April then the election started. Hardly enough time to be prominent, and that Ministry of hers was a nothing portfolio since much of that could have been handled by Tourism (of which strangely the BC Liberals at the time, did not have one).


"If as our resident blogger had predicted BCLIB will win another outright majority, maybe it will benefit the riding's constituents more if they choose to side with the government this time."

The voters will side with whomever they figure will represent them. Raj is obviously doing something right.

The mantra of electing a huge number of government MLA's doesn't wash too much. There can be too much government such as we had in 2001, and the PC's and Liberals federally have had previously.

A good government needs a good opposition, and Burnaby would do well to have two NDPers along with two BC Liberals.

5/14/2008 6:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting to note that Gordon Campell's vote capture went down from 56.1% in 2001 to arund 49% in 2005.

So the argument about leadership as provided by the BC Liberal here is not really valid.

5/14/2008 8:14 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Sure he will. He wants to take the easy route, considering that he has built up quite a support base in Coquitlam and he now wants throw that away for a run in Burnaby? "
For those who have not noticed, Harry Bloy has already started his re-election campaign in Burnaby. NDP could have won the riding with votes from Coquitlam but that is no more the case. Bloy will essentially be re-elected when he unseats Mayor Corrigan November.


"Wrong. Richard is the most popular BC Liberal politician in Burnaby."
Let me remind everyone again why BCNDP lost, to put it mildly, by a landslide in 2001. It was due to the anti-NDP votes which made BCLIB the government. Anti-NDP or BCLIB, it wont matter, what matters is it will be virtually impossible for BCNDP to nominate who is more electable.

"One wonders if the BC Liberals have learned any lessons too."
Lesson? What lesson? I thought they have been winning since BCNDP's fall from grace in 01. And yes, he faced two rookies in a row and I certainly hope BCNDP is not considering to run a third.

"Patti Sahota was hardly prominent since she only got that cabinet post in Feburary 2005, the session went until late April then the election started. "
What in your mind should prominence be defined? Certainly not sitting in the backbench as what has happened to the MLA that currently presides over the riding. Unlike some who may very well never be appointed to the cabinet, she continues to be the only cabinet minister elected in Burnaby in a long time. Same cannot be said with Raj who I am afraid continues to be floating outside BCNDP's leadership circle. In retrospect, you tell me which candidates would have sided with had they known BCNDP would continue to stay in opposition and their elected MLA would be sitting in the backbench. If our resident blogger's crystal ball has spoken the truth, then Raj's invisible incumbency may very well be in danger.

5/15/2008 6:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sure he will. He wants to take the easy route, considering that he has built up quite a support base in Coquitlam and he now wants throw that away for a run in Burnaby? "
"For those who have not noticed, Harry Bloy has already started his re-election campaign in Burnaby. NDP could have won the riding with votes from Coquitlam but that is no more the case. Bloy will essentially be re-elected when he unseats Mayor Corrigan November.

What if Harry doesn't and what is the relationship between his trying to defeat Corrigan and his re-election in May 2009? Setting himself up to be a Cabinet Minister?

"Wrong. Richard is the most popular BC Liberal politician in Burnaby."
"Let me remind everyone again why BCNDP lost, to put it mildly, by a landslide in 2001. It was due to the anti-NDP votes which made BCLIB the government."

That isn't new. The same thing occured in 1975. Ssme thing happened in 1984 and to a lesser extent in 2006.

"Anti-NDP or BCLIB, it wont matter, what matters is it will be virtually impossible for BCNDP to nominate who is more electable. "

Don't be so sure about that. The BC Liberals don't have the monopoly on electable candidates.


"One wonders if the BC Liberals have learned any lessons too."
Lesson? What lesson? I thought they have been winning since BCNDP's fall from grace in 01."

Well sort of. If one examines the vote counts from 2005 compared to 2001, there is erosion of support and it was quite large in Harry's instance.

"And yes, he faced two rookies in a row and I certainly hope BCNDP is not considering to run a third."

"Patti Sahota was hardly prominent since she only got that cabinet post in Feburary 2005, the session went until late April then the election started. "

What in your mind should prominence be defined? Certainly not sitting in the backbench as what has happened to the MLA that currently presides over the riding.

And Harry Bloy. He is a backbencher too.

Prominence is generally defined as ordinary people knowing who a person is. If you went out onto Kingsway between Imperial and 10th Ave, virtually no one would know who Patti Sahota was.

"Unlike some who may very well never be appointed to the cabinet,

Like Harry for example?

she continues to be the only cabinet minister elected in Burnaby in a long time.

Not so much Joan Sawicki (Burnaby Willingdon) was Madam Speaker and she was I believe Environment Minister at a time.

"Same cannot be said with Raj who I am afraid continues to be floating outside BCNDP's leadership circle. In retrospect, you tell me which candidates would have sided with had they known BCNDP would continue to stay in opposition and their elected MLA would be sitting in the backbench."

Kind of a silly question. Raj knew the NDP would be opposition after 2005 since there was no indication that the BC Liberals would be defeated even a year before the election.


If our resident blogger's crystal ball has spoken the truth, then Raj's invisible incumbency may very well be in danger.

So could Harry's. No riding is absolutely safe. Some are safer than others, but Harry is not well known in Edmonds as he is in Coquitlam.

5/15/2008 8:58 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Kind of a silly question. Raj knew the NDP would be opposition after 2005 since there was no indication that the BC Liberals would be defeated even a year before the election."

Did he? Then he must have known which row in back he would be sitting once elected. The voters missed a chance to have a cabinet minister re-elected and they continue to be under-represented and is still paying for it.

I still fail to see how BCNDP is planning to win these ridings. They had seven councilors in city hall during 2005 election and they continued to lose in Burnaby. Yes, theoretically everyone can win in elections. It is no surprise that they will look long and hard to find a reasons to unseat these incumbents, especially true if BCNDP is hinging their chance on a rookie candidate from the school board.

5/16/2008 11:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did he? Then he must have known which row in back he would be sitting once elected.

It was obvious (except to you) that the NDP wasn't going to make government in 2005. Raj knew that.


The voters missed a chance to have a cabinet minister re-elected and they continue to be under-represented and is still paying for it.

They didn't "miss a chance". The campaign manager bombed. Sahota should have had an easy win on her hands (given her 'prominence'), but obviously didn't use it right.

"I still fail to see how BCNDP is planning to win these ridings. "

Volunteer dedication for one, voter animosity towards the BC Liberals another, and third, a few
Burnaby ridings are not strong BC Liberal nor have they been.


"They had seven councilors in city hall during 2005 election and they continued to lose in Burnaby."

The two are not comparable. The NDP was in the minority civic wise in Burnaby in the 1980's but had three Burnaby ridings back then.


"Yes, theoretically everyone can win in elections. It is no surprise that they will look long and hard to find a reasons to unseat these incumbents, especially true if BCNDP is hinging their chance on a rookie candidate from the school board.

It will be more than just that that will yield an NDP win at the civic level.

Be there when it happens.

5/17/2008 4:28 PM  

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