Sunday, January 22, 2006

Guessing game

Burnaby Politics predicts the following orders of finish Monday night:

BURNABY-DOUGLAS
Bill Siksay, NDP
George Drazenovic, Conservative
Billy Cunningham, Liberal
Ray Power, Green
George Gidora, Communist


BURNABY-NEW WESTMINSTER
Marc Dalton, Conservative
Peter Julian, NDP
Mary Pynenburg, Liberal
Scott Janzen, Green


Nationally, there will be a Conservative minority government and the Bloc Quebecois will return to Official Opposition status. Locally, the two Greens will finish better than the provincial average for their party. The Communist will get more votes than the average Communist. Siksay's seat will be called for the NDP prior to 7:30pm. Third and first place in Burnaby-New Westminster will be separated by less than 1,200 votes and it will be one of the final races called early on Tuesday morning.

31 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interesting.

Billy Boy will also end his political patronage appointment.

Nice choice there.

Either he does that on his own, or the Conservatives will do that for him.

1/22/2006 12:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with you that Siksay is going to win possibly quite handily and that Burnaby-New West will be damn close.

Though, I think Julian will edge out another close victory. Everyone is confused about this one. Election prediction project actually called it for Pyenburg strangely enough. This and New West-Coquitlam will be very close.

I think Cunnigham will probably finish 2nd agian though. You may be overestimating the conservatives, which is understandable.

1/22/2006 2:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wouldn't count any of the three out. There is such a groundswell for the conservatives, it just might be enough. My son is in redidence up at SFU and he claims most of his residence is thinking about voting for George. Strange but there it is. Also said that Bill Siksay gave a very lame speech in the SFU pub one night. Then there is the frankenstein picture on his literature that others have mentioned - sure to turn off at least a few voters. I know it's shallow but that is how these things are decided.

Bill Cunningham has quite a bit of asian support as well as the typical lib vote.

I think it is too close to call.

1/22/2006 4:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Would your son perhaps be a conservative supporter? Just the same, i've seen Bill Siksay recieve lots of support at SFU and usually students lean left. The university vote will be kinda tiny all the same as half the students are not canadian citizens, and many others voted in their home riding.

1/22/2006 4:19 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dont think George C has a chance for second. He has just run a terrible campaign. In a close fight it will come down to the candidate and the campaign they ran.
Enough said.

1/22/2006 4:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree the Uni vote will not be large. I just thought it interesting (and surprising) how younger people were leaning. I'm not sure but I think my son will vote for the Green guy.

1/22/2006 4:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just saw the Burnaby Now article on George claiming victory already - that he has "already won".

Hmmmm.... My wife and I were going to vote for him, but I guess we don't need to bother if it's wet out there tomorrow night after work.

1/22/2006 5:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

SFU is a weird school. It actually is split pretty well between the Conservatives and the NDP (NDP and BC Liberals provincially).

Smartpork has little Asian support now...the Libs shot themselves in the foot over the head tax issue.

Burnaby-New West will be interesting, and though I think Julian will get the riding it will be one of the last ridings called on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

1/22/2006 9:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No freakin' way on Burnaby-New West. Julian owns this riding and will win by 3,000 votes. Dalton has been in hiding for the last few days, like a number of Conservative extremists. He wouldn't attend the Eastburn all-candidates meeting, and wouldn't even answer the NewsLeader's candidate profile!

1/22/2006 11:27 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Julian owns this riding and will win by 3,000 votes"

Talk about NDP arrogance. Did the NDP borrow that from the federal Liberals?

No candidate owns a riding. The riding is owned by the voters.

If Julian wins, he'll have alot to
answer for if he makes stupid mistakes like not voting for strengthening penalties for street racing and hit and run.

He will be watched.

1/22/2006 11:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Everyone in BD should vote for George C just to p*ss him off.
He would have to resign to get his stock bonanza on that energy company he is part of or lose it all.

1/23/2006 12:24 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah, but then we'd get a shitty "George Who" as MP.

Let GD get his stock bonanza, let BC go back to his party appointment, and let BS go back to Ottawa. That way, everyone does what they do best.

1/23/2006 2:49 AM  
Blogger Steve said...

Kinda hard for me to imagine a Dalton win, although I won't object to it. Of course I don't have access to internal party polls so what do I know.

Whoever wins the two Burnaby ridings will most likely be:

a) government backbencher
b) opposition critic-of-something

Dalton came across to me as a fairly principled person when he crossed the picket line during the BCTF strike (how was he punished by the BCTF afterwards I wonder? Hmm...), so I think he can handle some cabinet posts more responsibly than, say, certain unscrupulous Liberal ministers. But he doesn't seem to have the resume for it, from what I know about him. If he's clearly cabinet minister material, he might have a better chance at winning. Now as for George... well, he can probably be the junior environment minister, given his recent stint on the green company thing. I dunno, really.

But quite frankly I'd be happy if George can finish second place. Will Al McDonnell win at least 15,000 votes again if we bring him back? Hmm.

1/23/2006 3:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not a direct step from MP (or MLA) to cabinet material. Depends on geography and political experiences.

Geography being a wider region than the Lower Mainland.

Being a cabinet minister does not mean additional things for the riding.

Should Dalton win, he should take it one step at a time, and learn the system. He can be an effective MP. He seems to come across as being friendly to the voters.

Alan is a loose cannon on a wooden deck with wooden railings. Thing was he rolled around too much, hit the railing, went through it went over the side and splashed into the water and sank. He went down but the sailing ship just kept on going.

1/23/2006 6:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BC won't be able to go back to his party appointment if the Conservatives win government.

Political appointments end when the currrent government does.

1/23/2006 6:47 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To quote a great fellow from The Simpsons, "HAW HAW".

1/24/2006 12:39 AM  
Blogger Steve said...

It looks like either Robert Burnaby doesn't actually have access to internal party polls or the internal polls are kind of off.

I had trouble imagining a Dalton win anyway.

1/24/2006 1:46 AM  
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1/24/2006 10:05 AM  
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1/24/2006 10:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What are the odds that any of the losing candidates Liberal, Conservative or Green candidates for either riding will run in the next election? Would any of them give up on Burnaby and run in a "safer" seat for their party?

1/26/2006 10:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cunnigham has said he will run again.

but given the larger vote count for Siskay, Cunningham will most certainly lose.

Pynenburg will lose if she runs again in Bby New Westminster since Julian also increased his vote count.

Both are losers from a loser party

1/27/2006 7:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pynenburg was one of a very small group of lower mainland liberals to decrease her vote count. She's a bigger loser than Cunningham.

1/27/2006 11:13 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So Robert, why the lack of updates? Cat got your tongue over Julian's fairly large triumph?

1/31/2006 8:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Julian won the election, but he is going to fail at something. Every politician does.

Be there when it happens.

1/31/2006 11:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Julian may have roberts tonge and lips

2/01/2006 3:17 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I cant blame Robert for the lack of updates. I also went into a week of mourning when Julian won.

2/01/2006 6:37 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just what we need a politician
from a party that uses baby crap orange as a party colour.

2/01/2006 9:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Come on now...life can't suck that bad. Julian's a good MP, works hard in the community. You guys should quit crying the BLUES (pun quite intended), and like the monty python song goes... "always look on the bright side of life."

I mean after all... Pynenburg could have won. Then you guys would really have something to cry about.

2/02/2006 10:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Julian does need to actually do something useful. All he can do is talk.

It would have been worse if Pynenburg had won..

.. and the federal Liberals were returned to power.

2/03/2006 9:28 AM  
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